Witt Jr, Bobby - MLB HOF Tracker

AGE 22 Tracked Career 0.8 WAR – 3.8 WAR
Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 1.9 WAR
Average Hall of Famer Year 2.3 WAR

Witt Jr, Bobby
2022: 2.3 WAR Career: 2.3 WAR

It’s really hard for me to write about Witt because I feel like I’m going to come across as overly negative about a player who I am absolutely not overly negative about.

So let me give you a quick rundown. Bobby Witt Jr finished his age 22 season with 2.3 WAR. The average Hall of Famer accumulates 2.3 WAR in their age 22 season. Witt hit 20 homers. He stole 30 bases. He plays a premium position. If Witt develops, no one will look at his rookie year and think it’s out of place. The numbers he put up are perfectly acceptable numbers for a 22-year-old to keep an eye on.

So, yeah, save those Bobby Witt Jr. rookie cards, because a normal development curve and proper health means he’s going to have a very solid to great career.

But…but…but there’s just so much uninspiring about this last season.

First of all, let’s talk about development. Witt posted a .558 OPS in his first month. Well, duh. 22 year old is a big leaguer having to make big league adjustments. That ain’t easy. Lots of people come up rattled.

He recovered in a big way in May with an .829 OPS. That’s the Witt everyone wants to see. That’s the Witt you dream on for 2 decades.

And then…his OPS declined every month of the year.

.558
.829
.803
.761
.697
.663

I mean, if you reverse that, then I’m singing his praises here. Talking about how much better he got as he went along. But what am I supposed to make of this now? What can we expect of a 23-year-old Witt?

Witt finished the year with a .254/.294/.428/.722 line. His wRC of 99 is just a hair below average. I don’t have an issue with the batting average. It’s actually not half bad for modern baseball, and Witt was never going to be a high-average aficionado. But a .294 OBP thanks to a 4.7 BB%? Woof. And I mean woof.

Let me just give you a full list of Hall of Famers with a .294 OBP or below:

OK. That’s the full list.

To be fair there is ONE player who has made the Hall with a walk % lower than 4.7%. That’s Deacon White with 4.4%. Of course, he debuted in 1871, when it took at LEAST 9 balls to draw a walk.

So Witt’s pathetic plate discipline is a historical hindrance. It’s also one that doesn’t make a lot of sense. His walk rate in the minors last year was 9%. And there’s also basically no reason to pitch to Witt, who is basically the closest thing to a threat KC has in their lineup. So what gives?

Interestingly, Witt’s K% also dropped slightly. I don’t have the minor league data to back this up, but that’s very unusual, and would usually tell you that the already aggressive Witt was…being even more aggressive? Whether by player or by coaching this methodology of having everyone hit like Salvador Perez clones is not a good idea. Mike Matheny and Terry Bradshaw, a manager and hitting coach who I both hold in extremely low esteem, are both gone next year. And I sure hope that’s a good thing. I don’t see how a young player getting away from Mike Matheny could possibly be a bad thing, frankly.

The Royals batting average ranked 7th in the league last year. Not bad! Their OBP was quite a bit lower at 10th, and their slugging was 12th. So basically the team accomplished being an average team at hitting empty singles.

By the way, that’s the Royals. This is the most insane stat I’ve ever seen. The last time the Royals had a league ranking where their On Base Percentage OR their Slugging Percentage was higher than the league ranking for their batting average was NINETEEN NINETY-EIGHT. Their average was 12th in the league, but their slugging was 11th. That’s just stupendous. I’m in shock. The Royals decided 25 years ago their organizational philosophy was to ground singles through holes, or die. And they won a World Series doing this.

ANYWAY, what’s worse for Witt is that he was a guy that was supposed to stick at SS, and instead spent 1/3 of his time at 3B. And he was an abject disaster at both. Now look, he’s 22. He’s on a 90+ loss team. He should improve, which means you stick him at SS every M-Fing day so that he develops. You don’t stick him at 3rd and start his descent down the position ladder already.

Except I’m not sure I blame them. Witt, in just 98 games at SS, had a DRS of -19. My God in heaven. It’s like the answer to “what would happen if you stuck David Ortiz at SS?” It really looks like perhaps the Royals just couldn’t stand to have him out there. Maybe they thought he was losing it mentally. He wasn’t good at 3rd either, for the record.

So you see? You see how I sound down on him? And I’m not. I’m definitely down on his situation. But what I’m scared of is that I see multiple signs of mishandling – either at the behest of the Royals, or that the Royals simply ignored. Perhaps with so much turnover around the franchise it will be different. Dear lord Royals, you have a possibly huge talent here. You aren’t winning the 2023 World Series. Stick him at SS and COACH him there. And stick him at #2 or so in your order and make him TAKE A PITCH. He’s in the 1st percentile for outs made in the league. That’s an issue.

But let me tell you – quickly – something else about him. When he calms down and gets a pitch to hit, he MASHES. His exit velocities are great. He barrels balls all the time. He has speed on the bases for days. He has actual metrics that tell you how much talent is bubbling inside of him and maybe had the worst possible people to get it out of him. But he’s going to be 23 next year, not 33. And he’ll have different voices in his head, and it’s possible we’re going to see an emergence of talent next season that stuns our current baseline for him.

But if he’s starting at 3B next April, and walking once every two series, I’m going to lose faith really fast.

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Witt Jr, Bobby – MLB HOF Tracker

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