2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 7

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with a lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE
For update 2 click HERE
For update 3 click HERE
For update 4 click HERE
For update 5 click HERE
For update 6 click HERE

This is update 7/10. We will update approximately every 16 games.

Age
Player fWAR since last update // Season fWAR // Career fWAR

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Eury Perez 0.0 // 0.9 // 0.9 MILB
When Eury was sent down, the Marlins had the 2nd best record in the NL and were resting him for the stretch run. One month later, the Marlins had fallen to 8th, and now they need Eury to help them make a desperate playoff run.

Age 21

Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Ezequiel Tovar 0.0 // 1.2 // 1.1
Tovar hit .297 since the last update. No, sorry, that was his OBP. No, oops, wrong again, that was his SLG. Gulp. I mean he’s young and talented, so he’ll probably be fine overall, but he ain’t winning any awards this year.

Elly De La Cruz 0.5 // 1.3 // 1.3
Albert Pujols struck out 93 times in his rookie year in 690 plate appearances. It was his career high. Elly has struck out 83 times in 243 plate appearances. So he has some catching up to do.

Francisco Alvarez -0.1 // 2.2 // 2.2
21 homers on the season, and 21 walks. I love races like this!

Age 22

Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom 0.0 // -0.4 // 0.3 AAA
Last 5 games in AAA – 9-17 with 5 walks and a homer. He’s an absolute hitting machine. On any other team, he’s starting in the majors. Just so happens he’s in the Braves organization, and they are basically an All-Star team unto their own. Awesome hitter? Nah. We don’t need him.

Zach Neto -0.4 // 0.9 // 0.9 DL
Well I don’t want him to be hurt, but I also want my victory lap as last update I pointed out something was still wrong, and now he’s back on the DL. This time for a lot longer, it looks like.

Taj Bradley 0.0 // 1.1 // 1.1 AAA
Optioned to the minors, as his FIP was going up along with his ERA

CJ Abrams 1.0 // 1.6 // 1.3 NEW TO LIST
One of the potential stars of the Soto deal, it’s nice for Washington that they now have a potential star SS – but doesn’t literally every team have a potential or current star at SS? Have you looked at the list? There have to be 15 on here, and that doesn’t include Dansby, or prospects.

Anthony Volpe 0.2 // 1.4 // 1.4
While everyone continues to wonder when Volpe’s .211 average is going to rise to respectability, remember last year he hit .236 in 99 AAA PAs and .251 in 497 AA PAs. In other words, the Yankees knew what they were getting.

Riley Greene 0.4 // 2.2 // 3.0
It’s always shocking to me to look at Greene’s metrics, because he’s one of the best hitters in the league. And I want to blame his rather pedestrian numbers on Detroit. But he’s hitting .344 at home!

Gunnar Henderson 0.3 // 2.6 // 3.4
I was going to talk about how the only thing that’s holding him back is his lack of contact, but I got scared Peter Angelos would suspend me.

Corbin Carroll 0.4 // 4.3 // 5.7
Forget statistics for a moment. Have you paid attention to this kid at all? Watch one game, one actual game, and see how many times you’re taken aback by how hard he’s playing the game every single play. He’s just awesome.

Michael Harris II 0.3 // 2.1 // 6.9
1.214 OPS so far in August, in case you were wondering if he’s really back.

Julio Rodriguez 1.0 // 3.6 // 9.0
.343 with 5 HR and 5 SB has him surging since last update. Baseball fans are so weird about sample sizes. You don’t put up that big of a rookie year without actually being good.

Wander Franco 0.6 // 4.3 // 9.0
His HOF chances may have taken a minor plunge.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras 0.0 // 0.0 // 1.1 MILB
Sort of going through a virtual minor league rehab at this point after not appearing in games over the last month.

Matt McLain 0.7 // 2.9// 2.9
Kind of what I expected when I saw his rate stats. Impressive player of course, but:

Home 9 HR .990 OPS
Road 3 HR .774 OPS
Years of bad teams have hidden what an extreme hitters park Cincinnati is.

Nolan Gorman 0.6 // 2.4 // 2.9
There’s been a narrative that Gorman has turned himself into an average defender, but it’s not true. He’s much improved, but still has negatives in all of his run value stats, and in UZR. The Brendan Donovan injury is his best shot to get the innings the rest of the way to demonstrate if he’s playable at 2B, which would be a huge value jump over DH.

Hunter Greene 0.0 // 1.7 // 3.3 DL
2 more rehab starts until he’s thrust in the middle of a pennant race. Hard not to be excited about what he might do down the stretch.

Geraldo Perdomo -0.2 // 2.6 // 3.3
9 sacrifices are leading the league for the 2nd year in a row, and more sacs than 14 entire teams.

Reid Detmers -0.1 // 1.9 // 4.0
The 2nd half has been rough, the Mariners just destroyed him, and the Astros in Houston are up tonight – but Detmers has impressed with his rate stats, and looks to be almost untouchable in an Anaheim potentially post-Ohtani.

Bobby Witt 1.2 // 3.9 // 6.2
Since July 23rd is hitting .379 with 10 xbh and 7 steals and it’s helped jump start the dreams of what everyone thought he might be.

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Andres Munoz 0.3 // 0.9 // 3.1
Ohhhh watch out. With the Sewald trade, Munoz was made closer and has already been electric. Just as he’s likely to fall off this list – as is the eventual fate of every reliever, his actual HOF case is starting.

Jack Suwinski -0.1 // 2.1 // 3.9
3-38 with 19 strikeouts to start August. Jack! We were so excited to have you aboard the list, dude! Don’t quit on us now!

Isaac Paredes 0.4 // 3.2 // 5.2
He’s crushing his xwOBA, appears to be because he’s selling out for power, and pulling the ball more. He’s swinging more than ever (still low) but missing more than ever – so it’s not producing weak contact. He just goes from his heels and misses. And he used to pull the ball at insane rates in the minors. Detroit tried to stop that. TB has encouraged it. So now he’s hitting for power down the short LF line. Fascinating player to watch.

Dylan Carlson -0.4 // 0.5 // 5.4 DL
Hitting .145 since July 5th, and has since hit the DL. Must have partied hard on Independence Day.

Alejandro Kirk 0.9 // 1.6 // 6.2
Let’s do some average EVs for Kirk through the years:

2020: 95.0
2021: 92.3
2022: 90.5
2023: 87.0

Spencer Strider 0.4 // 3.7 // 8.5
Absolutely tragically, Strider struck out 6 Mets in 7 innings halting his 29 start streak of striking out more batters than innings pitched. I mean, it was 7 shutout innings and a win, but still: he disappointed me.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -0.1 // 0.2 // 9.3
Has 1 HR dating back to July 24th

Andres Gimenez 0.0 // 1.6 // 9.7
Don’t look now, but his 4-5 day with a homer over the Rays has his OPS back to league average. Oh, ye doubters.

Fernando Tatis Jr. -0.2 // 3.4 // 17.0
Hit his 100th career HR in Colorado – and frankly his Hall case seems a lot rosier now that other young superstar SSs have worse issues, right?

Juan Soto 1.0 // 4.3 // 27.1
Soto is Soto – his OPS+ is 155, and his career OPS+ is 157. But one must wonder is the high batting average days are a thing of the past? Probably dramatic, hitting .289 since April.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Michael Soroka 0.0 // -0.3 // 4.6 AAA
He was never going to be great this year – but he’s been really good in AAA? 1 run over his last 12 innings, 3.38 ERA overall – wouldn’t even have expected that after his layoff. The future could actually still be bright.

Triston McKenzie, -0.1 // 0.3 // 5.6 DL
Well, he’s playing catch again! I would suspect his return will depend on the Ind – the Guardians success in their sort of playoff chase.

Alek Manoah, -0.1 // -0.2 // 5.6 AAA
Of all things about his complete disaster of a season – he had one balk in his first 300 career innings, and has 3 in 87 innings this year. It just kind of makes me tilt my head.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.3 // 0.5 // 5.7
I’ll at least hand the Marlins this one – his defensive metrics in CF have progressed tremendously this year. He’s a positive OAA guy now (+3).

Trevor Rogers, 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
It’s August 14th, and Rogers is still not able to throw. Considering the Marlins need for arms for the chance they could make the playoffs, I’m sure they are going to keep pushing for this season to happen. But…it’s not happening.

Emmanuel Clase, 0.3 // 1.4 // 6.4
Officially passed the 30 save mark for the 2nd consecutive year. And hey, he’s 25, so that’s a good thing. Still leading the league in saves, in spite of some bad luck.

Steven Kwan, 0.5 // 2.4 // 6.5
Back to back games with standup triples in Tampa, he’s just a guy who is fun to watch and root for.

Adley Rutschman, 0.3 // 2.7 // 8.0
Has 4 0-hit games in August, and 6 2-hit games. How many 1 hit-games? Just 2. Kinda weird.

Luis Robert Jr., 0.3 // 4.5 // 11.1
With the trade of Jake Burger, Robert’s 31 HR is more than the next to White Sox (Vaughn 15, Jimenez 14) combined.

Bo Bichette, 0.4 // 3.4 // 15.2 DL
Blue Jays picked up Paul DeJong to cover for Bichette’s injury. He’s 3-39. So the good news is, I don’t see a Wally Pipp thing happening here.

Ronald Acuna Jr., 1.1 // 6.2 // 24.6
1990 MVP Rickey Henderson: 28 HR, 65 SB, .439 OBP
2023 MVP-elect Ronald Acuna JR: 26 HR, 55 SB, .421 OBP

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Ke’Bryan Hayes -0.2 // 0.9 // 7.8 DL
HR by year: 5,6,7,8. Just wait until he’s 60.

Daulton Varsho 0.1 // 0.8 // 7.9
Announcers llllllllove opposite field hitting, it’s true. But if you want to point to Varsho’s struggles this year, he’s hitting to the opposite field 50% more. That means he’s hitting weaker balls, folks, and why he’s under-performing his xwOBA by 12 points.

Trent Grisham 0.7 // 1.6 // 8.8
Last 5 games: 1-17 with 10Ks. Trent’s a fine player, value-wise. But when you talk about boring baseball, they could use his at bats as a sleep aide.

Nico Hoerner 0.8 // 2.8 // 9.4
Batting .299 with 4 homers and an .857 OPS since the All-Star break, which has to make him the worst Cub in that stretch.

Luis Arraez 0.5 // 3.3 // 10.4
I love that he hit .354 in July and his batting average dropped. Hits are fun! Players who get hits are fun! Acting like errors are hits, doesn’t fool anyone! (message to Manfred)

Gleyber Torres 0.6 // 2.1 // 12.4
11 game hitting streak just ended, but hoo-boy. 1.141 OPS with 4 doubles and 2 homers.

Logan Webb 0.3 // 3.1 // 12.5
The secrets to leading the league in Innings Pitched (163) are health, and low walk rate (league leading 1.4 BB/9)

Austin Riley 0.7 // 3.0 // 13.4
125 career home runs now for Riley, don’t know if I’ve ever mentioned it, but I was there to watch his first career homer fly past me, right after telling my party that he was going to be a monster.

Julio Urias 0.2 // 0.7 // 13.7
Free Agent trackers take note, that Urias’s weird high HR rate has been gone since he returned from the DL. 3 HR in 8 starts in that time, with a 3.02 FIP. Spend the cash to get him.

Kyle Tucker 0.8 // 3.7 // 14.8
Don’t look now, but his OPS+ (145) besides being great, is only 2 points off his career high.

Yordan Alvarez 0.7 // 2.9 // 16.9
3-25 all singles in the past week, just got shut down completely

Ozzie Albies 0.3 // 2.6 // 17.8
Wish I could write a book on how weird Albies is. I think eventually teams are going to seek this out, instead of pushing against it, but who knows. He’s in the 35th percentile for exit velocity – and currently 2HR shy of his 2nd 30 HR season. Just yanks it down the right field line to the short porch, and then jogs around the bases.

Rafael Devers 0.9 // 2.2 // 20.3
On the other hand, Devers is a ball crushing machine playing in the absolute worst park for his swing. 26 HR this year, according to statcast if he played all of his games in Fenway he’d have 23 – lowest of any park. In Cincinnati he’d have 34.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Willy Adames -0.5 // 1.1 // 14.8

You ever had the girlfriend who dumped you for a better guy, and then found out later, he wasn’t a better guy after all? Do you think Adames has started getting late night tests from the Rays?

Sandy Alcantara 0.5 // 2.4 // 15.6
Complete game over the Yankees, 1 run, 10Ks, gives him 3 CG on the year – after leading the league last year with 6. This may just be his category to dominate for the next half decade.

Cody Bellinger 1.1 // 3.8 // 21.0
Bellinger is hitting .387 since the All-Star break. That’s almost double his average the past few years. He proved to be too good for the Cubs to even trade – but…feel like he just may turn down that player option next year. Duh.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Yoan Moncada, -0.3 // -0.1 // 13.5
OPS+ last year was 78. This year it’s fallen to 73. Next year he’s due to make over 24 million dollars. Good for him!

Tommy Edman, 0.1 // 1.5 // 14.6
Wife asked him to hit a homer on her birthday. He hit two. Sort of setting the bar high in the relationship category. What a jerk.

Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
Dodger’s announced he’s coming back as a starter IF he comes back. But also, it’s August 14th. So I’ll just…keep…finding updates…

Corbin Burnes, 0.4 // 2.3 // 16.6
Burned hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t been himself. And he plays for Milwaukee. And he’s about to get expensive. I wonder how likely an off-season trade might be?

German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL

There ain’t gonna be any Marquez news the rest of the year. But I can tell you he did retweet the Mariners honoring King Felix a few days ago, so there is proof of life.

Shane Bieber, 0.0 // 1.6 // 20.4 DL
Has started a throwing program. Could be a major piece if he can make it back by the playoffs.

Shohei Ohtani, 1.0 // 7.8 // 30.7
Did you see the video of Shohei almost crying in the dugout after losing a game he had to be pulled out of early (4 shutout innings). I’ll give you a hint this off-season – the guy wants to win.

Carlos Correa, -0.4 // 0.6 // 31.9
Before this year, the concern was about Correa not being able to play. This year the problem has been when he HAS played.

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, 0.0// 0.7 // 19.0
He’s back on the DL. Don’t know what else to tell you! At all times, he’s either hurt, or about to be hurt.

Matt Olson, 0.9 // 3.8 // 21.9
43 HR, 107 RBI. On pace for 60. Strictly from a HOF standpoint, obviously this is a major jump. If he hits 50 it’ll be one of those seasons you immediately remember when he retires.

Corey Seager, 1.5 // 4.1 // 30.3
Remember that his 31 doubles and 20 homers have been in 75 games since his injury. With his .348 average, this is like watching a peak Nomar season.

Alex Bregman, 0.5 // 2.2 // 33.3
The hope was last year’s surges meant that the MVP candidate version of Bregman was back – his current 113 OPS+ isn’t a bad number, but it is his career low, and he’s in his age 29 year.

Francisco Lindor 0.9 // 4.0 // 46.0
Always strange to me to hear what a supposed disappointment he’s been to the Mets. His 116 OPS+ this year is exactly 1 point below his career average. Lindor’s batting average might be low, but that’s not where his value comes from.

Avg HOF Season: 4.6

Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7
Forgive me as he wasn’t technically off the DL when I pulled his numbers, but HOLY CRAP TREVOR STORY WOKE UP! 7 hits and 4 doubles in 19 at bats since his return. Amazing what a little year-long rest can get you!

Javier Baez, 0.0 // 0.0 // 24.5
In his last 10 at bats he’s struck out 8 times. His OPS+ is 60. How much worse can his stay in Detroit possibly get?

Matt Chapman, 0.4 // 3.5 // 27.5
11 DRS is the most since he was an elite 3B back in 2019 (had 28 that year…won’t be catching that)

Aaron Nola, 0.0 // 2.3 // 32.2
His home run rate is the highest of his career, and his K/9 is the 2nd lowest. I think he’s been running on fumes all year, especially since the playoffs last year, but something for FA bidders to think about.

Trea Turner, -0.3 // 1.3 // 33.0
Last 10 games his OPS is 1.207, and his OPS on the season has gone up almost 50 full points. Perhaps the funk is over.

Xander Bogaerts, 0.3 // 2.7 // 36.9
I got nothing on Bogaerts. He’s have a slightly down, but very typical year. 500th career walk! There you go. He got his 500th career walk. You’re welcome.

Jose Ramirez, 0.5 // 4.0 // 45.2
Ramirez pretty clearly jumped his HOF chances the moment Tim Anderson hit the ground.

Bryce Harper, 0.4 // 1.2 // 45.4
If you’re still baffled at his power outage – his 27.8% fly ball % is by FAR the lowest of his career. The question is, will it rebound with health? Or was the surgery a career delineation point?

Manny Machado, 0.6 // 2.8 // 49.4
Sits 1 hit short of career #1,700, If he has a super hot final 6 weeks, could approach 1750.

Mookie Betts, 0.7 // 5.3 // 55.4
30 year old Mookie Betts and his 154 wRC+ is the 2nd highest of his career. Can we call him a legend yet?

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, 0.0 // -0.5 // 31.8 DL
Broken finger. Back on the DL. Says the Rockies don’t want him to move the finger at all. Kind of sounds like a ploy to make sure he doesn’t play again.

Aaron Judge, 0.0 // 2.8 // 39.0
Did you know Judge was originally drafted by Oakland? Wouldn’t that change some history? Maybe not this year, probably would have ended up signing with the Yankees anyway.

Christian Yelich, 0.3 // 4.0 // 40.7
His brief power renaissance appears to be over. 0 HR and 2 2B so far in August.

Mike Trout, 0.1 // 3.0 // 85.2 DL
Starting hitting off a machine again – have to get back to see the last time Trout and Shohei will be teammates.

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.3 // 1.3 // 31.0
Nice August power surge – 3 HR in 8 games – has him sitting 1 short of 150 for his career.

Gerrit Cole, 0.7 // 3.3 // 42.0
10 wins on the year has him up to 140 for his career. By next year he might be at 150 – at age 33. The new 300!

Nolan Arenado, 0.4 // 2.7 // 48.4
3 double plays in the last 4 games has him leading the league with 17. First black ink as a Cardinal!

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Anthony Rendon, 0.0 // 0.2 // 34.3 DL
I spent way too long with someone who argued the Cardinals should trade Arenado for Rendon in part because Arenado was due to be hurt, and Rendon was not. I’ve wasted a good chunk of my life. In other news, Rendon is back on the DL and shut down from baseball activities for a few weeks.

Jason Heyward, 0.0 // 1.6 // 34.9
This year Heyward is homering ever 20.5 at bats, the best pace of his career. And he is doubling every 15 at bats…the best pace of his career. Crazy.

Anthony Rizzo, -0.1 // 0.9 // 35.9 DL
So Rizzo is a walking corpse on the field for months at a time, and then the Yankees are like – oops! Cracked skull.

Giancarlo Stanton, 0.2 // 0.0 // 42.7
Fly ball rate is a very low – but easily highest for him – 29.1%. He can still hit home runs. It’s basically all he can do. But as long as that Fly ball rate isn’t a mirage, he’s going to keep homering at high rates even as he ages.

Jose Altuve, 0.7 // 1.9 // 50.4
200th career HR – last year, at freaking age 32, tied his career high OPS+ at 160. This year, at 33 his OPS+ is…160.

Freddie Freeman, 1.5 // 5.7 // 56.1
Insane 43 doubles already means that he might be going for 60. The all-time record is 67. The all-time NL record is 64.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Yasmani Grandal, -0.1 // 0.0 // 37.5
No truth to the rumor that he added Jose Ramirez to his will.

Chris Sale, 0.1 // 1.3 // 46.8
Well, he’s active again. And he tired, but realistically he was great. 7 strikeouts and 0 walks in 4.2 innings, only gave up one hit. Just so happens he hit a guy, and the 1 hit was a homer, so 2 earned runs.

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob deGrom, 0.0 // 1.5 // 42.6 DL
I just think it’s insanely awesome that deGrom left the Mets for the Rangers, and said it was because he wanted to win. Then a few months later, Scherzer is traded from the sucky Mets to join him on the good Rangers.

Paul Goldschmidt, 0.1 // 2.9 // 56.9
Got his 1,100th RBI. At this age, every little milestone counts.

Clayton Kershaw, 0.0 // 2.1 // 75.6 DL
He’s baaaaaaaaaaack. Also, beware of: His baaaaaaaaaaaack.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, 0.0 // 1.1 // 52.0
Didn’t homer in July, hasn’t homered in August, and still sits 3 below 300. Gotta be worried here.

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

Josh Donaldson, -0.1 // -0.1 // 46.1 DL
Hoping to return to action this season. Yankees fans hoping otherwise.

Evan Longoria, 0.0 // 0.6 // 55.1 DL
Has back stiffness that isn’t improving. Have to wonder if we’ve seen the last of him, too.

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, -0.1 // 1.1 // 71.4
Calling out the Mets front office for saying they didn’t plan on competing next year, has to be the highlight of news leaks for the year.

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.5 // 0.5 // 58.4
The Reds are winning, and an up and coming team for the first time in forever. Votto is actually playing pretty well and has an OPS over .800. Could he decide this is fun and come back next year?

Zack Greinke, -0.2 // 0.4 // 65.9
He’s on the DL and is 1-12 on the year. I cannot believe it, but he’s not going to get the TWO wins he needed this year for 225. Thanks ROYALS.

Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, 0.0 // -0.3 // 68.3
I just realized that Cabrera has only DHd this year, save for a few PH appearances. That’s 248 plate appearances from your DH – and 1 home run. Tell me that’s not an easy record.

Justin Verlander, 0.5 // 1.9 // 80.0
Last time I asked if Verlander would win 250 as a Met. The answer was YES!!!! And then he was dealt off to the Astros.

2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 6

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with a lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE
For update 2 click HERE
For update 3 click HERE
For update 4 click HERE
For update 5 click HERE

This is update 6/10. We will update approximately every 16 games.

Age
Player fWAR since last update // Season fWAR // Career fWAR

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Eury Perez -0.3 // 0.9 // 0.9 MILB
Eury was sent to the minors as a strategic way to keep his arm fresh for the stretch run. The Marlins immediately started losing. Wonder how long until they suddenly decide ok! That’s enough rest!

Age 21

Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Elly De La Cruz 0.0 // 0.8 // 0.8
If you haven’t watched the De La Cruz steals of 2nd, 3rd, and home in succession, you’re just not a baseball fan. Or, I apologize for your coma, and now you have some research to do.

Ezequiel Tovar 0.0 // 1.2 // 1.1
I know, I know, Coors effect and all, but how do you even start to play a guy with a .260 OBP on the road? I guess the answer is the entire team sucks. Which bodes really well for Tovar accumulating a lot of stats when he’s young.

Francisco Alvarez 1.3 // 2.3 // 2.3
Set the Mets catcher rookie home run record with a 467 ft blast. Lord. He’s hit 5 more since then, 19 for the year. He’s legit, even if the Mets aren’t.

Age 22

Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom 0.0 // -0.4 // 0.3 AAA
Has his walk rate in AAA up to 10%, first time it’s been double digits since A Ball. I have no idea what his defense is like, but he’s ready to star in the bigs. Maybe for another team?

Taj Bradley 0.0 // 1.1 // 1.1
The belief around Taj is not to believe his 5.29 ERA. Has an incredible .351 BABIP – which makes his FIP 3.95. Even crazier is his xFIP is 3.30

Anthony Volpe 0.1 // 1.2 // 1.2
He’s so much better than this, potential-wise, but was clearly called up at least a year early. His rate stats nearly look like exact MLE equivalents from his not great bout in AAA last year. So will he still naturally improve as he gets older and become a superstar? Or did the Yankees royally screw up his development. Kind of fun to watch!

Zach Neto 0.5 // 1.3 // 1.3
He’s not Mr. Strikeout, so the fact that he’s K’d in every game since his return – including back to back hat tricks, suggests either the timing or the health ain’t there yet.

Riley Greene 0.2 // 1.8 // 2.6
BABIP this year is .413. You read that right. And this isn’t weird for him, he’s always had insanely high BABIPs. Imagine if he cut down on the strikeouts, and played somewhere besides Detroit.

Gunnar Henderson 0.7 // 2.3 // 3.1
6 game hitting streak – but only 1 hit per game – but only one of THOSE was a single. Weird, man.

Corbin Carroll 0.3 // 3.9 // 5.3
19 HR and 29 SB, are we just going to pretend we’re not watching a rookie go for a 30-50 campaign? Like some sort of Eric Davis redux.

Michael Harris II 0.5 // 1.8 // 6.6
Had 27 hits all season 5 weeks ago. He’s had 40 since then on an insane .370 run. Phew. The Braves really needed someone to come through, right?

Julio Rodriguez 0.5 // 2.6 // 8.0
I know fans went from thinking Julio was the 2nd coming to the 2nd going, but I’ll remind everyone again, xwOBA last year – .337. xwOBA this year? .334. Whatever he actually was last year, he still is this year.

Wander Franco 0.0 // 3.7 // 8.4
Franco is hitting .225 with a .292 OPB since his strange 2 game “you’re kind of a dick” suspension. Think of that what you will.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras 0.0 // 0.0 // 1.1 MILB
His 6.59 ERA got him transferred to the Florida Complex League – which is a pretty fitting name for whatever he’s going through. Not sure how a 23 year old loses 2MPH on their fastball in two years.

Matt McLain 0.4//2.2//2.2 NEW ADDITION
His .710 SLG in AAA got him called up to the majors, and over performing his xwOBA by 40 points gets him on this list. He’s in the perfect park, he’s already over performing his expected home runs by 3. He’s only hit 8!

Nolan Gorman 0.6 // 1.8 // 2.3
A lot of talk early in the season about Gorman laying off high pitches more. And it’s true. High and inside pitches he’s swinging at 13% less. Oh, but when he does swing, he’s missing them 11% more. So, that’s not helping.

Hunter Greene 0.0 // 1.7 // 3.3 DL
Greene has started throwing off the mound again. He’s the proverbial “getting him back is just LIKE making a big trade!” for the Reds.

Geraldo Perdomo 0.1 // 2.8 // 3.5
Perdomo is in the 1st percentile for: exit velocity, hard hit %, xSLG, and barrel percentage. His xAVG is .207. But his actual average? Well that’s .278.

Reid Detmers 0.0 // 2.0 // 4.1
Detmers was on the roll of his life with 4 (almost 5) quality starts- and good ones. Only one game did he allow as many as 2 runs. Then the Dodger’s blew him out of the water, and the Astros weren’t kind either. So, you know, baseball.

Bobby Witt 1.0 // 2.7 // 5.0
.940 OPS in July is the best in his career by over 100 points. I mean, there’s still 10 days left in July but…we’re desperate for positives here, people.


Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Andres Munoz 0.1 // 0.6 // 2.8
Munoz is striking out 13.5 batters per nine innings, which, you know, doesn’t even lead the Mariners bullpen. Not close, really.

Jack Suwinski 0.6 // 2.2 // 4.0 NEW TO LIST
Suwing-and-a-misski has taken the Joey Gallo route of solid defense and extreme 3-true-outcomes to make it on this list. Gallo was here for a while too! But this type of player doesn’t exactly age well, post-steroid era.

Isaac Paredes 0.5 // 2.8 // 4.8
Readers of past updates will note I’ve spend all year waiting for Isaac Parades to play like Isaac Parades. It’s here. BB% back above 10%, K rate back down, like makes sense again.

Alejandro Kirk 0.0 // 0.7 // 5.3
Kirk has 10 DRS and an 89 wRC+, go ahead and collect your prize if you expected Kirk to be a defense first catcher.

Dylan Carlson 0.4 // 0.9 // 5.8
Dylan has had an all-around better year than last year, but has found himself the odd-man out of the starting lineup once again. And, well, if you can’t start for what might end up being a 90-loss team, your HOF prospects aren’t your biggest problem.

Spencer Strider 1.1 // 3.3 // 8.1
Strider has started 20 games this year, and in every single one he has more strikeouts than innings. Every. Single. One. That has to be a record, right?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -0.2 // 0.3 // 9.4
Vlad’s ordinary season looks just like last year, until you consider he’s underperforming his xwOBA by 50(!) points.

Andres Gimenez 0.7 // 1.6 // 9.7
Everyone has long talked about Gimenez’s lack of EV this year, including me. Only I told you not to worry. He’s not exactly Giancarlo Stanton, but it is creeping back up, and with results. .801 OPS with 3 homers in July. That’s the Gimenez they want.

Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.6 // 3.6 // 17.2
.960 OPS with a .326 average since June 1st, the season plus layoff spider webs are officially shaken’ off. Now we get 15 years of arguing if his PED suspension means he’s not a HOF.

Juan Soto 1.1 // 3.3 // 26.1
On July 21st, he hit a 447 ft homer off of Reese Olson. In his next at bat he hit a 463 ft homer off of Reese Olson. In his next at bat, Reese Olson walked him.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Michael Soroka 0.0 // -0.3 // 4.6
Yeah, he’s been a disaster, but I find it hard to insult the guy. He’s pitching for the first time in years, and I wouldn’t expect him to be his old self all year long. Whatever he is now, isn’t likely to be what he is a year from now.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.3 // 0.2 // 5.4 DL
Every update I have to check if Jazz is still on the DL from something that’s just not getting better, or if he has an all new injury. In this case it’s all new!

Triston McKenzie, -0.1 // 0.3 // 5.6 DL
He’s in the situation everyone hates for pitchers. His team is in the running. So can he sit around and get better, and help at the end of the year? Or is he going to need Tommy John? And if it is the latter, how much time to they get to waste waiting on him?

Alek Manoah, 0.2 // -0.1 // 5.7
I think at this point, the strangest part of the season is that he had a legitimately good game against the Tigers, because he looks like the soul of a baseball player just completely left his body.

Trevor Rogers, 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
He was supposed to start throwing again, but he did not begin throwing again, and at some point this is going to be a completely lost cause.

Steven Kwan, 0.6 // 1.9 // 6.0
2022 Kwan has shown up in July – .300 average, OBP over .350, 7 slashing doubles. Good to see again.

Emmanuel Clase, -0.1 // 1.1 // 6.1
Clase got bombed by the Cubs, but has been great in every other game over the last 2 months. More importantly, he continues to lead the league in saves and he earned his 2nd All-Star appearance, which are the most important for his HOF track

Adley Rutschman, 0.5 // 2.4 // 7.7
June swoon looks to be over. OPS back over .800 in July, and the Orioles have taken 1st place. Not a coincidence.

Luis Robert Jr., 0.6 // 4.2 // 10.8
Robert has 28 home runs. His best two seasons combined before this year were 25.

Bo Bichette, 0.0 // 3.0 // 14.8
Had a 7-11 two game stretch, on the road, which started with the 2nd game of a double header after he played the entire first game. So I guess Bo Bichette, who has played in 98/99 games this year, simply does not get tired.

Ronald Acuna Jr., 0.5 // 5.1 // 23.5
His K Rate is almost exactly half what it is last year, and Acuna is streaming towards an MVP award. MLB needs to have him go on a team by team tour talking about the benefits of actually making contact occasionally.

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Daulton Varsho -0.2 // 0.7 // 7.8
7 hits and 16 strikeouts in July, but at least he has absolutely no value as a catcher anymore.

Ke’Bryan Hayes -0.3 // 1.1 // 8.0 DL
Hayes and Cruz make a pretty killer “ALL DL” left side of the infield for the Pirates.

Nico Hoerner -0.1 // 2.0 // 8.6
Don’t get me wrong, he’s clearly a fantastic defender, but that’s basically where all of his value lies, and curiously he has a negative UZR at both 2B/SS this year. Must be spectacular at the routine plays!

Trent Grisham 0.7 // 1.6 // 8.8
After winning the GG with 14 OAA last year, Grisham has 3 this year. His hitting has gone back up to league average, but if the Padres are going to have Juan Soto in Right Field, they need Bugs Bunny playing center.

Luis Arraez 0.1 // 2.8 // 9.9
Since the last time Arraez was hitting .400 on June 21st, he’s only hit .292. What a bum.

Gleyber Torres 0.6 // 1.5 // 11.8
Torres has dropped his K% over 8% this year to a career low 14.3. And he’s still, as always, putting up a career average season. So maybe don’t have him do the Acuna tour.

Logan Webb 0.7 // 2.8 // 12.2
Webb is leading the league in innings – even after only making it 1.1 against the Nats. Come to think of it, perhaps the workload is WHY a crappy team destroyed him.

Austin Riley 0.6 // 2.3 // 12.7
Home runs in 5 games, including a multi-homer 7 RBI evening. Remember when his season was just OK? What a superstar.

Julio Urias 0.5 // 0.5 // 13.5
Urias’s ERA is above 5 on the year because he’s giving up HR left and right. I can’t tell you exactly why – I imagine injuries and a significantly slower fastball are a big part of it. Certainly that’s a part of the K decrease. But for his future I do wonder what sort of contract he might get – and if the Dodgers will care where it is.

Kyle Tucker 0.9 // 2.9 // 14.0
Look, 3-homer games still count, even if it’s off Oakland pitching.

Yordan Alvarez 0.5 // 2.2 // 16.2 DL
Currently on a rehab assignment, with hits in all 3 games, and his MLB return is imminent.

Ozzie Albies 0.6 // 2.3 // 17.5
He’s on a 1-21 stretch, which is weird, because I didn’t think the Braves were allowed to be bad.

Rafael Devers 0.6 // 1.9 // 20.0
I still don’t think people understand how often he hits the ball super hard. MLB average for hard hit % is 36.1, for the 3rd straight years, Devers is over 50%. The problem is Fenway is the worst park for his swing. Oh well!

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Sandy Alcantara 0.0 // 1.9 // 15.1
For all of Alcantara’s struggles this year, he’s only had one start where he didn’t finish 5 innings (I actually think this is part of the issue)

Willy Adames 0.6 // 1.6 // 15.3
Adames continues to fly under the radar. His offense isn’t pretty, but usually effective – he’s been unlucky this year. But on defense? Every metric loves him. He should be a Gold Glove finalist. This is an extension candidate.

Cody Bellinger 1.3 // 2.7 // 19.9
Bellinger has 0.5 more WAR this year – in a year with missed time with injuries – than he’s had the last 3 years combined. The Cubs have to be negotiating an extension, or else Cody is going to make his mark elsewhere in the playoffs.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Yoan Moncada, -0.2 // 0.2 // 13.8 DL
7 for his last 13 on his rehab assignment. That doesn’t mean he’s going to actually be good again, but the White Sox are going to be forced to play him.

Tommy Edman, 0.2 // 1.4 // 14.5 DL
Edman has a wrist injury that just won’t feel better. Somewhat hilariously, even with that injury, the Cardinals kept using him as a late inning defensive replacement before he went to the DL.

Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
He’s throwing bullpen sessions again. Originally his goal was a September return, but here we are a week from August, and no signs of a rehab assignment. So color me skeptical, like we all were, the day he said it.

Corbin Burnes, 0.9 // 1.9 // 16.2
Something was wrong with Corbin Burnes. Mr. Strikeout did not have a double digit K start this year through his first 19 starts. His last two: 13 and 10. Both in games where he gave up 2 hits. So I guess he pitched through it.

German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL
For the 2nd time, I’ve scoured for any news about German Marquez, only to find a Dever Post writer thinks that the Rockies are going to turn down his $16 million dollar option, since he’s not pitching next year – but they are going to explore a multi-year extension instead! He threw out $10 million a year! So THAT they are willing to waste. I mean, I wouldn’t put anything past Rockies management, so sure!

Shane Bieber, 0.0 // 1.6 // 20.4 DL
Bieber, whose fastball was recovering by the start (And he was a great pitcher even with a slow one) has one week left of no throwing before he will presumably be on his way back.

Shohei Ohtani, 0.7 // 6.8 // 29.7
Ohtani is on pace for 57 home runs in his quest to be the AL single season HR record holder. I just wish there was some other pitcher turned slugger that once held that record that we could compare him to every single day for the rest of our lives.

Carlos Correa, 0.3 // 1.0 // 32.3
Picked up his 1,000th career hit. A single. Against Kansas City. You can tell how exciting it was.

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, -0.5// 0.4 // 18.5
You gotta love that he broke an 0-25 streak with a 2 homer game. That’s very Buxton.

Matt Olson, 0.6 // 2.9 // 21.0
Well Olson leads the NL with 32 homers and 80 RBI, and thus he just needs to jump his average by 120 points to beat Arraez and win the NL triple crown.

Corey Seager, 0.0 // 2.6 // 28.8
Crossed both the 150 career homer mark, and the 500 RBI mark. Leading the AL in AVG and OBP. Dodger’s gotta regret this one.

Alex Bregman, 0.1 // 1.7 // 32.8
Since my last update, hit career homer #150 – and has added 6 more, including one in each of the last 3 games.

Francisco Lindor 0.7 // 3.1 // 45.1
5-5 day against Arizona with 2 triples and a homer. Followed it up in San Diego with a 3-5 day and a homer. That was 2 weeks ago. Pretty much nothing since then (except career hit 1,250)

Avg HOF Season: 4.6

Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7 DL
Good news! He’s on a rehab assignment now! He went 0-4 with 4 Ks. So I think he needs a few more days.

Javier Baez, 0.3 // 0.7 // 24.5
I admit that I am totally impressed that as much of a disaster as Baez was last year in his first year in Detroit, with his .671 OPS – he’s much, much MUCH worse this year at .605. Always was the most surprising player on the diamond!

Matt Chapman, 0.7 // 3.1 // 27.1
150th career HR just his 12th of the year. Power is still there, leading the league with 30 doubles. Granted, they all came in April, but still…

Aaron Nola, 0.6 // 2.3 // 32.2
Nola is still dang good, but he already has given up 2 more HRs and 1 more BB than all of last year, and this year is a FA year for him.

Trea Turner, 0.2 // 1.6 // 33.3
Last year Turner hit .298. This year his OBP is .298. I refuse to believe that this is anything more than a freak down year.

Xander Bogaerts, 0.5 // 2.4 // 36.6
Picked up career hit 1,500 in a 3 hit game against the Blue Jays. But it’s the Padres we’re talking about, so somehow they got shutout and lost. No idea how they manage to do this.

Jose Ramirez, 0.2 // 3.5 // 44.7
His “Down year” is no longer down, as his OPS+ is at 140, and he’s once again putting up what will be a peak season, with around 5 WAR projected. Of, and he got hit 1,250. Tired of arguing with people about what a future HOF he obviously is.

Bryce Harper, 0.4 // 0.8 // 45
That’s 1B Bryce Harper to you. That’s weird to say. Even weirder: given 562 PAs, he’d be on pace to hit 8 home runs this year. That used to be a month for him.

Manny Machado, 1.4 // 2.2 // 48.8
OPS+ up to 117, the slump is over, and he hit career HR #300. When he signed his contract he said at the end he’d be going to the Hall of Fame, and yeah, he’s pretty close to clinching that already.

Mookie Betts, 0.7 // 4.6 // 54.7
30 year old Mookie Betts and his 154 wRC+ is the 2nd highest of his career. Can we call him a legend yet?

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, -0.1 // -0.5 // 31.8
When he’s been able to play – which isn’t a lot – he has an ISO of .128. And he plays for the Colorado Rockies. One has to wonder if Bryant is taking the Dale Murphy career trajectory.

Aaron Judge, 0.8 // 2.8 // 39.0 DL
This whole toe injury thing stopping the biggest monster in baseball feels a bit like a biblical story, no? Anyway, he’s ready to face live pitching again, and if Judge is on, he may make them dead pitching.

Christian Yelich, 1.1 // 3.7 // 40.4
WTF. This is like the end of Major League II when they hear ‘Wild Thing’ blaring and they all start screaming in excitement because Charlie Sheen is finally cool again.

Mike Trout, 0.1 // 3.0 // 85.2 DL
Hamate bones are frustrating, but not fatal. Timing is everything with those things, so the question is, how much do you trust the Angel’s medical staff?

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.0 // 1.0 // 30.7
Time comes for everyone, and catchers even faster. Maybe his decline on both sides of the ball is a sign of impending doom, but I can’t get over than last year his XWOBACON was .412 and this year it’s .413

Gerrit Cole, 0.4 // 2.6 // 41.3
Now, with his All-Star starting assignment, I feel like people might realize they are watching a HOF pitcher? Albeit, a modern version?

Nolan Arenado, 1.0 // 2.3 // 48.0
I think you’d be stunned at home much the Cardinals struggles can be pinned on Nolan Arenado absolutely forgetting how to field this season. At the All-Star break he announced he was back to his old routines – and wow the payoff. +4 DRS in just that time.

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Anthony Rendon, 0.0 // 0.2 // 34.3
Came off something like his 87th DL trip of the year to immediately hit a home run. It was his 2nd of the year. And, ok, he’s done absolutely nothing since then – but for one glorious moment fans had to feel like he might be ok again.

Jason Heyward, 0.1 // 1.6 // 34.9
In part time duty Heyward is up to 9 home runs – that’s something he only accomplished twice over the length of his Cubs contract.

Anthony Rizzo, -0.5 // 1.0 // 36.0
1st 46 games – 11 home runs. Last 45 games – 0 home runs.

Giancarlo Stanton, 0.0 // -0.2 // 42.5
Stanton is back to his all or nothing ways. He’s hitting just .168 since he came off the DL – but with 8 home runs. He’s 9 from 400.

Jose Altuve, 0.0 // 1.2 // 49.7 DL
The broken bone sucked because those kinds of injuries are bad luck injuries and players his age don’t need those. Why? Because the oblique injury is definitely one of those things that’s more likely as you get older. And this year he’s been lucky enough to get both.

Freddie Freeman, 0.9 // 4.2 // 54.6
Atlanta may have replaced him with the HR/RBI hitter, but Freeman is leading the league in OPS. Because he’s a freaking unstoppable monster.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Yasmani Grandal, -0.1 // 0.1 // 37.6
2 HR and 8 RBI over the last week, it’s always odd to me when a washed player suddenly comes through in short spurts.

Chris Sale, 0.0 // 1.3 // 46.7 DL
He’s throwing bullpens now, so he’s well on his way to getting back and then getting hurt again.

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob deGrom, 0.0 // 1.5 // 42.6 DL
This M-F gonna get a World Series ring this year, and it’s going to hilariously piss off Mets fans.

Paul Goldschmidt, 0.1 // 2.8 // 56.8
3 XBH in all of July, 1 double and 2 homers. Age? Apathy on a bad team? Just a bad streak?

Clayton Kershaw, 0.0 // 2.1 // 75.6 DL
Was scheduled to throw a bullpen. And then that was cancelled. And the Dodgers said nothing was wrong. And, uh, yeah. Sure. SOMETHING had to happen, right?


Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, -0.5 // 1.1 // 52.0
Cutch disappeared in July. Injuries didn’t help. But he’s crossed the 2,000 hit plateau, and he is 3 homers from 300. When he gets there, I think he officially becomes an “eventual” Hall of Famer

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

Josh Donaldson, -0.1 // -0.1 // 46.1
Now at .142 with 10 homers on the season. Between Donaldson, Stanton, and Rizzo, it’s a little surprising the Yankees aren’t no-hit 3 or 4 times a week, and win the other games 18-4.

Evan Longoria, -0.3 // 0.6 // 55.1
Thanks to injuries, Longoria – hitting well but never playing – had a chance to get more regular time. He has responded by going 3-22 in July. So there goes that.

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, -0.1 // 1.1 // 71.4
Max Scherzer, in 100 innings pitched, is leading the league in homers given up with 22. We all shall fall.

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.0 // 0.0 // 57.9
Votto was able to come back this year afterall, and while he’s 39 and recovering from surgery, and only hitting .186, he’s still productive thanks to walks and power. Enough power that he got the biggest milestone in reach – HR #350.

Zack Greinke, -0.2 // 0.6 // 66.1
I’m going to track this all season, obviously. Grienke is STILL 1 win short of 225. 1-10 on the year. Since May 8th, the Royals are 1-12 in his starts. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs in any of them.


Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, 0.1 // -0.3 // 68.3
Since my last update, Cabrera has finally hit his first home run of the season. And who was it off of? Spencer Fing Strider. I can’t believe it, honestly. It might be the highlight of the season. Since then? 77 plate appearances and 2 doubles.

Justin Verlander, 1.2 // 1.4 // 79.5
Verlander sits 2 wins short of 250 still, he only has 4 all year. The question is, will he get 250 as a Met?

2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 5

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with a lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE
For update 2 click HERE
For update 3 click HERE
For update 4 click HERE

This is update 5/10. We will update approximately every 16 games.

USUALLY, first time readers, I have little updates written for every player. Well I didn’t have time this go round, and yeah, that happens once or twice a season. If you check earlier updates, you’ll see that this thing usually has enough content it takes me a full day or two to write and research and update. So forgive me this once. And when it happens again, forgive me this twice.

Age
Player fWAR since last update // Season fWAR // Career fWAR

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Eury Perez 0.9 // 1.2 // 1.2

Age 21

Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Elly De La Cruz 0.5 // 0.8 // 0.8
Francisco Alvarez -0.3 // 1.0 // 1.0
Ezequiel Tovar 0.4 // 1.2 // 1.1

Age 22

Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom 0.0 // -0.4 // 0.3 AAA
Anthony Volpe 0.6 // 1.1 // 1.1
Taj Bradley 0.0 // 1.1 // 1.1
Zach Neto 0.5 // 1.3 // 1.3 DL
Gunnar Henderson 0.7 // 1.6 // 2.4
Riley Greene 0.0 // 1.6 // 2.4 DL
Corbin Carroll 0.5 // 3.6 // 5.0
Michael Harris II 1.3 // 1.3 // 6.1
Julio Rodriguez 0.3 // 2.1 // 7.5
Wander Franco 0.5 // 3.7 // 8.4

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras 0.0 // 0.0 // 1.4
Nolan Gorman -0.4 // 1.2 // 1.7
Hunter Greene 0.2 // 1.7 // 3.3
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 // 2.7 // 3.4
Bobby Witt 0.4 // 1.7 // 4.0
Reid Detmers 0.7 // 2.0 // 4.1

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Andres Munoz 0.3 // 0.5 // 2.7
Isaac Paredes 0.4 // 2.3 // 4.3
Alejandro Kirk -0.1 // 0.7 // 5.3
Dylan Carlson 0.3 // 0.5 // 5.4
Spencer Strider 0.2 // 2.2 // 7.0
Andres Gimenez 0.3 // 0.9 // 9.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -0.2 // 0.5 // 9.6
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1.4 // 3.0 // 16.6
Juan Soto 1.1 // 3.3 // 26.1

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Michael Soroka 0.0 // -0.3 // 4.6
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.3 // 0.2 // 5.4
Steven Kwan, 0.2 // 1.3 // 5.4
Alek Manoah, 0.0 // -0.3 // 5.5 AAA
Triston McKenzie, -0.1 // 0.3 // 5.6 DL
Trevor Rogers, 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
Emmanuel Clase, 0.4 // 1.2 // 6.2
Adley Rutschman, 0.3 // 1.9 // 7.2
Luis Robert Jr., 1.3 // 3.6 // 10.2
Bo Bichette, 0.2 // 3.0 // 14.8
Ronald Acuna Jr., 1.7 // 4.6 // 23.0

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Daulton Varsho 0.3 // 0.9 // 8.0
Ke’Bryan Hayes -0.3 // 1.1 // 8.0 DL
Trent Grisham 0.4 // 0.9 // 8.1
Nico Hoerner 0.7 // 2.2 // 8.7
Luis Arraez 0.7 // 2.7 // 9.8
Gleyber Torres 0.0 // 0.9 // 11.2
Logan Webb 0.4 // 2.1 // 11.5
Austin Riley 0.5 // 1.7 // 12.1
Julio Urias 0.0 // 0.0 // 13.0 DL
Kyle Tucker 1.0 // 2.0 // 13.1
Yordan Alvarez 0.5 // 2.2 // 16.2 DL
Ozzie Albies 0.8 // 1.7 // 16.9
Rafael Devers 0.3 // 1.3 // 19.4

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Willy Adames 0.2 // 1.0 // 14.7
Sandy Alcantara 0.4 // 1.9 // 15.1
Cody Bellinger -0.1 // 1.4 // 18.6

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Yoan Moncada, -0.2 // 0.2 // 13.8
Tommy Edman, 0.1 // 1.1 // 14.3
Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
Corbin Burnes, 0.1 // 1.0 // 15.3
German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL
Shane Bieber, 0.4 // 1.6 // 20.4
Shohei Ohtani, 3.1 // 6.1 // 29.0
Carlos Correa, 0.3 // 0.7 // 32.0

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, 0.0// 0.9 // 19.0
Matt Olson, 1.2 // 2.3 // 20.4
Corey Seager, 1.4 // 2.6 // 28.8
Alex Bregman, 0.5 // 1.6 // 32.7
Francisco Lindor 0.7 // 2.4 // 44.4

Avg HOF Season: 4.6

Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7 DL
Javier Baez, 0.2 // 0.4 // 24.2
Matt Chapman, 0.2 // 2.4 // 26.4
Aaron Nola, 0.4 // 1.7 // 31.6
Trea Turner, 0.7 // 1.4 // 33.1
Xander Bogaerts, 0.0 // 1.9 // 36.1
Jose Ramirez, 1.3 // 3.3 // 44.5
Bryce Harper, -0.1 // 0.4 // 44.6
Manny Machado, 0.3 // 0.8 // 47.4
Mookie Betts, 0.8 // 3.9 // 54.0

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, -0.1 // -0.4 // 31.9
Christian Yelich, 0.8 // 2.6 // 39.3
Aaron Judge, 0.8 // 2.8 // 39.0 DL
Mike Trout, 0.9 // 2.9 // 85.1

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.1 // 1.0 // 30.7
Gerrit Cole, 0.7 // 2.2 // 40.9
Nolan Arenado, 0.4 // 1.3 // 47.0

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Anthony Rendon, -0.4 // 0.2 // 34.3
Jason Heyward, 0.9 // 1.5 // 34.8
Anthony Rizzo, 0.3 // 1.5 // 36.5
Giancarlo Stanton, -0.4 // -0.2 // 42.5
Jose Altuve, 0.9 // 1.2 // 49.7
Freddie Freeman, 0.4 // 3.3 // 53.7

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Yasmani Grandal, -0.1 // 0.2 // 37.7
Chris Sale, 0.4 // 1.3 // 46.7 DL

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob deGrom, 0.0 // 1.5 // 42.6 DL
Paul Goldschmidt, 0.7 // 2.7 // 56.7
Clayton Kershaw, 0.3 // 2.1 // 75.6

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, 0.6 // 1.6 // 52.5

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3
Josh Donaldson, -0.2 // 0.0 // 46.2
Evan Longoria, 0.5 // 0.9 // 55.4

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, 0.2 // 1.2 // 71.5

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.0 // 0.0 // 57.9
Zack Greinke, 0.1 // 0.8 // 66.3

Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, 0.2 // -0.4 // 68.2
Justin Verlander, 0.1 // 0.2 // 78.3

2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 4

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with a lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE

For update 2 click HERE

For update 3 click HERE

This is update 4/10. We will update approximately every 16 games

Age
Player fWAR since last update // Season fWAR // Career fWAR

Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8

Eury Perez 0.3 // 0.3 // 0.3 NEW ADDITION
— I’m not overly confident a 20 year old pitcher is going to stay on this list long – heck, I’m not overly confident any pitcher will survive the night. But a 6’8 220 pound 20 year old striking out a batter an inning in the majors? That’s just fun.

Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Elly De La Cruz 0.3 // 0.3 // 0.3 NEW ADDITION
— Yes, he’s played 4 MLB games. He’s also been very good in those 4 games. He’s also struck out 9 times in 15 at bats! So, it’s gonna be a ride.

Ezequiel Tovar 0.5 // 0.8 // 0.7 NEW ADDITION
— In one sense Tovar has made the list because he went on a doubles tear – 7 since last update. In a much more real sense, he’s a 21 year old Full Time playing SS, and it’s virtually impossible to be that young, get that kind of positional adjustment, and not be tracked for a while.

Francisco Alvarez 0.5 // 1.3 // 1.3
— He’s supposed to still be in the minors, and instead he just hit his 2nd MLB multi-homer game. And against the freaking Braves. And the day before he hit another. He might end up pretty OK.

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom 0.0 // -0.4 // 0.3 AAA
–He’s still hitting well in the minors, 6 doubles just since 5/31 – but also has 2 multi-error games in that time, and it’s going to keep him in AAA.

Anthony Volpe -0.4 // 0.5 // 0.5
— Hitting .125 with 2 walks since the last update.

Zach Neto 0.3 // 0.8 // 0.8 NEW ADDITION
— No offense to Mr. Neto, but see Tovar above. A young regular SS is going to make this list for a while. There’s not much reason to think he’ll be here in 15 years.

Taj Bradley 0.5 // 1.1 // 1.1 NEW ADDITION
— Pretty typical modern call up here. He’s made 7 starts. He’s struck out the world, with 48 in 35 innings. In none of his 7 starts, did he make is 6 innings. The Rays are smart, but this is so freaking boring.

Gunnar Henderson 0.7 // 0.9 // 1.7
–.898 OPS since last update has his decent season back on track

Riley Greene 0.4 // 1.6 // 2.4
–Tigers get an actual bright side, and now he’s down with a fractured fibula.

Corbin Carroll 1.5 // 3.1 // 4.5
–In his last 4 games he has: 10 hits, 2 doubles, 4 homers. I’m kind of curious why people aren’t fainting over him more.

Michael Harris II 0.0 // 0.0 // 4.8
–Hit .297 last year. Is slugging .304 this year.

Julio Rodriguez 1.0 // 1.8 // 7.2
–.328 avg, .919 OPS with 4 HR and 4 SB since last update. As I said, he’s fine, he’s just been very unlucky.

Wander Franco 1.1 // 3.2 // 7.9
–.362 since last update. It’s amazing to me that a few injury filled weeks last year have people disappointed and writing off a 22 year old superstar. Fans are stupid.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras -0.1 // 0.3 // 1.4
–0.1 innings and 7 runs given up. OK, every starter has a day like that. But his happened against the Oakland A’s. He should have been banished from Earth after that.

Nolan Gorman -0.3 // 1.6 // 2.1
— 14 HR last year, 15 HR this year.

Geraldo Perdomo 0.2 // 2.2 // 2.9
–Last year hit .195, this year since May 3rd hitting .182. So you can believe the .409 start he had going into May 3rd all you want…

Hunter Greene 0.6 // 1.5 // 3.1
–Rebounded from a rough stretch to throw 6 no-hit against CHC with 11Ks, followed it up with 6IP 2H 8K against BOS

Reid Detmers 0.3 // 1.3 // 3.4
–Got his 1st win on June 8th, in a season where his FIP is 3.40. Sheesh.

Bobby Witt 0.3 // 1.3 // 3.6
–50 career SBs already, to go along with 30 career HRs

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Andres Munoz 0.1 // 0.2 // 2.4
–Off the DL with one perfect inning and 2Ks. Of course.

Isaac Paredes 0.7 // 1.9 // 3.9
–6 RBI game with 2 HR helping him look like an actual star. Of course there’s no player who is more over performing their xwOBA, but that’s the point. He just keeps doing it.

Dylan Carlson 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.1
–Off the DL and into an outfield so full of injuries and bad play, that they’ve been regularly putting 2 infielders out there. Let’s hope that means Dylan gets an extended run to show what he’s worth.

Alejandro Kirk 0.5 // 0.8 // 5.4
–With Danny Jansen on the mound, Kirk is showing off his strangely adept catching skills, and hitting .311 since the last update. Mostly empty, but an improvement.

Spencer Strider 0.2 // 2.0 // 6.8
–Strangely he’s been getting tagged more recently 7 HR allowed last year in 131.2 innings, now 9 this year in 73.2 innings.

Andres Gimenez 0.2 // 0.6 // 8.7
–Gimenez may be coming to life – hitting .333 with an .859 OPS in his last 10 games.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -0.1 // 0.7 // 9.8
–9 HR on the road this year, 0 at home.

Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.4 // 1.6 // 15.2
–Tatis didn’t play all of last year, and missed the beginning of the season due to his suspension. He was also coming off of shoulder surgery. Now, guess who leads the Padres in home runs?

Juan Soto 0.7 // 2.2 // 25.0
–Thanks to a ridiculous 5-5 night against the Mariners – and he was pulled in the 7th inning – he now has more hits (58) than walks (56)

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Michael Soroka -0.3 // -0.3 // 4.6 AAA
–Lasted two starts in the majors before he was sent down for good reason, the terrible A’s blew him up. Braves fans have been awaiting his return, but that was always crazy. He’s going to need time to get back to previous levels, if he is ever able to.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. -0.1 // -0.1 // 5.1 DL
–Last update is that he is ready to “ease” into baseball activities. Then the Marlins will make him a catcher, or a loogy or something. Because they are the Marlins.

Steven Kwan 0.5 // 1.1 // 5.2
–Kwan famously has no power, and has somehow hit 2 home runs this year. Both against the Twins. That has to give Twins fans some feelings they need to work out.

Alek Manoah -0.3 // -0.3 // 5.5
–I don’t know a promising player that’s been a bigger disaster. His last outing against the Astros he made it exactly 0.1 innings and gave up 6 runs. His 6.36 ERA is actually lucky if you believe FIP (6.52) – just DL the man. Make up any excuse.

Triston McKenzie 0.4 // 0.4 // 5.7
–Yeah, so he came off the DL and made one start against the Twins, and proceeded to throw 5 shutout with 1 walk, 1 hit, and 10 strikeouts. So I think he’s ok.

Trevor Rogers 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
–Just about to throw a rehab start – and got scratched with pain in his shoulder. The good news it’s non-throwing. The bad news is, “what the Hell, man?”

Emmanuel Clase 0.4 // 0.8 // 5.8
–Back to his old tricks. In his last 6 outing, 6 innings, no runs, 2 hits, 9 Ks.

Adley Rutschman 0.2 // 1.6 // 6.9
–OPS nearly 100 points better as a catcher than a DH – .838 to .747

Luis Robert Jr. 0.2 // 2.3 // 8.9
–Wonder how much the power tradeoff is worth it. Having a great year, has a career high in HR, but K% up from 19.2% to 28.7%. That’s alarming and hardly seems sustainable.

Bo Bichette 0.8 // 2.8 // 14.6
–Leading league in hits for 3rd time in his career would give some bragging rights – his dad led the league in hits twice.

Ronald Acuna Jr. 0.3 // 2.9 // 21.3
–Most amazing part of his season is that his incredibly awesome .406 OBA trails his xwOBA by a ton (.447)

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Daulton Varsho 0.4 // 0.6 // 7.7
–Did you realize he’s the son of Gary Varsho? I did not. In fact, I forgot Gary Varsho existed, and well, there’s just not much interesting to say about Daulton Varsho this time. He’s doing better. Not great. OK, let’s move on.

Trent Grisham 0.4 // 0.5 // 7.7
–A single allowed Grisham to pass Matt Carpenter (.193 to .192) on the pathetic Padres list, though Austin Nola and his .135 is taking the crown.

Nico Hoerner 0.2 // 1.5 // 8.0
–OPS+ has now slid down to a 97 on the season. He’s a great defender playing out of position, and he a meh hitter. But boy, the people love him. Don’t ask me.

Ke’Bryan Hayes 0.9 // 1.4 // 8.3
–Remember I told you his metrics were much better this year? Yeah well he’s 19 for his last 34 with 3 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 homers, and suddenly he’s a league average hitter.

Luis Arraez 0.7 // 2.0 // 9.1
–Let’s see, ho hum, what to talk about with Arraez. Can’t think of a thing. Maybe I can think of 400 things. His .400 average is 106 points higher than the next qualifying Marlin. And that’s .294, pretty good!

Logan Webb 0.5 // 1.7 // 11.1
–His amazing 8 game run of quality starts was finally snapped, but it it was in Colorado, he still pitched ok, and the Giants won, so does it even count?

Gleyber Torres 0.3 // 0.9 // 11.2
snapped an 0-20 with a HR, got on base twice the next night, and followed that with another homer.

Austin Riley 0.9 // 1.2 // 11.6
Multi-hit games in 4 straight, included 4 hits in the last one, and suddenly his season line is looking a lot more normal.

Kyle Tucker 0.1 // 1.0 // 12.1
His unspectacular slog continues, but at least he had a 2 SB game to give him 10 for the year. Another 20-20 year seems likely.

Julio Urias 0.0 // 0.0 // 13.0 DL
Was supposed to be back to start against the Phillies but…nope. It was an impressive timeline to recover from injury, so it’s not the most disappointing news ever.

Ozzie Albies 0.4 // 0.9 // 16.1
Nothing like 3 HR in 5 games to make your season look a lot better.

Yordan Alvarez 0.5 // 2.2 // 16.2 DL
Only 10 hits in last 15 games – but 5 of them homers.

Rafael Devers 0.0 // 1.0 // 19.1
Has crossed the 150 HR plateau. Actually he did that last update, but I don’t see anything noteworthy this time. So there you go.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Willy Adames 0.0 // 0.8 // 14.5
–Since April 24th he’s made 5 starts where he didn’t strike out. If you’re wondering why his season seems…sad.

Sandy Alcantara 0.4 // 1.5 // 14.7
–Look, I keep harping on this with him and other pitchers. Yes, his FIP is far better than his ERA. But he gave up 5 runs in 7 innings to the A’s. Something is wrong.

Cody Bellinger 0.0 // 1.5 // 18.7 DL
–People wondered the point of the option year for Bellinger. If he recovered, no way he accepts the deal. If he was terrible again, no way the Cubs accept it. This injury is the answer. If he LOOKS better, but not good enough to secure a long term deal from being hurt, both parties will be happy to do this again for a year.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Yoan Moncada, -0.3 // 0.4 // 14.0
–Hit his 3rd homer of the season the other night. You don’t need to take that as a positive note.

Tommy Edman, -0.1 // 1.0 // 14.2
–Edman continues to play CF for the Cardinals, where he’s very good. But value wise they took him from a great fielding, solid hitting SS to a good fielding, poor hitting CF. Strategy!

Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
–No update on Buehler, who thinks he can pitch out of the bullpen in September. Hint: It’s not going to happen. But because it’s not official, I get to keep coming up with updates all season long. Yay!

Corbin Burnes, 0.2 // 0.9 // 15.2
–2022: Last start was his first 9K start of the year. And it was 0 walks, 2 hits, and 8 innings of shutout work…against the very good Orioles. Uh oh, league is on notice. Corbin might be back.

German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL
–Was reading speculation that the Rockies would still pick up German’s 16 million dollar player option next year, when he will at best, mostly be recovering from TJ surgery. And then he becomes a free agent. So yeah, that makes total sense that the Rockies will want to pay him 16 million dollars to not pitch. Bloggers and their baseball talk right? What a bunch of idiots…cough…cough.

Anyway, the Rockies do lots of dumb things, so you never know!

Shane Bieber, 0.2 // 1.2 // 20.0
–Has 2 starts all year with more than 4 Ks.

Shohei Ohtani, 0.8 // 3.0 // 25.9
–Was reading that he’s had 3 starts as a pitcher this year, where he’s gotten 3 out of 4 hits needed for the cycle. I mean, that’s…that’s pretty cool.

Carlos Correa, 0.1 // 0.4 // 31.7
–Hitting .206 with a few injuries since the last update, His march to 1,000 career hits is turning into a slog. He should already be there.

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, -0.2 // 0.9 // 19.0 DL
–Listen, you’ll want to sit down for this news. I hate to be the one to tell you this, but you’re going to have to adjust to a world in which Byron Buxton is on the DL. I know, I know, it’s new territory and we all have to find a way to move on.

Matt Olson, -0.3 // 1.1 // 19.2
–The NL leader in strikeouts has a 10 game strikeout streak going.

Corey Seager, 0.3 // 1.2 // 27.4
–Seager’s career year, albeit injury shortened, now includes his 200th career double. Rangers looking like they got a steal.

Alex Bregman, 0.8 // 1.1 // 32.2
–Might as well keep this update going, now only underperforming his xwOBA by 7 points, and it’s because he’s surged, with a .386 BABIP since the last update, perfect for catching up on luck.

Francisco Lindor 0.1 // 1.7 // 43.7
Yes he’s been in a terrible hitting slump, but 5 of his 12 homers on the year are since the last update. Wonder if the power surge is related to missing everything else?

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7 DL
–I love this update:
“Earlier this week, Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora made the surprising revelation that injured infielder Trevor Story could come back earlier as a designated hitter.”
Surprising revelation? I’ve been making fun of that plan here for months. Luckily for Boston fans, it appears to be untrue, and he’ll actually come back only as a SS. Because, he ain’t Bryce Harper, duh.

Javier Baez, -0.1 // 0.2 // 24.0
–Well his 28 game homerless streak just ended, so bully for him!

Matt Chapman, 0.3 // 2.2 // 26.2
–I’m not going to lie, I miss shockingly high batting average Matt Chapman we saw for the first few months. Average has dropped 30 points since last update as he seems destined to go back to his .220s self.

Aaron Nola, 0.1 // 1.3 // 31.2
–Home Run has been plaguing him all year. Had a 12K 7IP performance last game against the Tigers, only gave up 1 hit. The 1 hit was a 3 run homer.

Trea Turner, 0.0 // 0.7 // 32.4
–Turner’s OPS since the last update is .666, and I feel that’s all you need to know about his season.

Xander Bogaerts, -0.1 // 1.9 // 36.1
–Missed 4 games with injury, to go 2-5 with a double. Which is good. I neglected to tell you it was in Coors field, but still…can’t complain.

Jose Ramirez, 0.5 // 2.0 // 43.2
–3 homer game gave him 200 for his career. Celebrated the next night by hitting another, getting 3 hits total, AND walking 3 times – twice intentional. OPS went up 83 points in 2 games.

Bryce Harper, 0.1 // 0.5 // 44.7
–Yes, for the record I am concerned that Harper’s 3 HR on the year, and his nil power over the last month, might mean that the Phillies screwed him up.

Manny Machado, 0.1 // 0.5 // 47.1
–885 OPS since DL return. I’m not saying he’s back – it’s a very small sample size, and includes a good Coors game. But I’m saying there’s reason for optimism.

Mookie Betts, 1.1 // 3.1 // 53.2
–Had back to back multi-homer games, 7 total since last update, including career HR 225.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, 0.0 // -0.3 // 32.0
–I sadly discovered I had Bryant listed as positive .3 WAR on the year instead of negative .3 WAR – so even while he is uselessly on the DL, he lost half a WAR here.

Christian Yelich, 0.3 // 1.8 // 38.5
–He has struck out three times in a game three times in his last five games. That was hard to type.

Aaron Judge, 0.8 // 2.8 // 39.0 DL
–Continues to be a superhuman God on the field, 19 HR leading the league in fewer than 50 games – and it sure feels like he’s leading the league in HR robbed too. But now back on the DL again. That’s a microcosm of his Hall quest.

Mike Trout, 0.3 // 2.0 // 84.2
–Yeah, his OPS is .841. His average is .258. We’re almost certainly seeing actual decline phase Trout. But he’s probably not this bad, either. His .381 xwOBA is still awesome, and not far off of last year’s .394.

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.0 // 0.9 // 30.6
–Jason Stark had Realmuto on his version of a Hall tracker, but his Hall Tracker had about 30 players on it. At least 30 players playing today will essentially make it. Realmuto has to play insanely well through his 30s to be one – and he’s a catcher. Oh, and it isn’t happening. A big slump has his OPS down to 92. We really shouldn’t listen to the baseball genius of the people that are labeled authorities.

Gerrit Cole, -0.2 // 1.5 // 40.2
–Lost his perfect record against Boston. How? Well he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings. How dare he! Now just 7-1 on the year.

Nolan Arenado, -0.1 // 0.9 // 46.6
–Hit his first homer the other way as a Cardinal, and just hit his first triple the other way as a Cardinal. So I guess he’s learning a new skillset.

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Jason Heyward, 0.5 // 1.1 // 34.4
–48 games as a Cub last year, 5 doubles 1 HR
48 games as a Dodger this year, 8 doubles 6 HR

Has his career OPS back to 101, above average!

Anthony Rendon, 0.0 // 0.6 // 34.7
–1-13 since his return from the DL. Still only 1 HR on the year. Can we stick a fork in this one?

Anthony Rizzo, -0.5 // 1.2 // 36.2
–1-27 in June. Amazing how quickly you can turn a career year into a typical year.

Giancarlo Stanton, -0.1 // 0.2 // 42.9
–Missed 43 games on the DL, and hit a homer in his return. I don’t think people realize how easy and unspectacular his chase for 500 is going to be.

Jose Altuve, 0.2 // 0.3 // 48.8
–Scored 4 runs in last 2 games, now sits 1 short of 1,000 – this will start Altuve on a huge run of milestones.

Freddie Freeman, 0.9 // 2.9 // 53.3
–A bit under-appreciated last year while Goldy was winning the MVP – this year he has to have the lead, right? Leads NL in runs, doubles, OPS, total bases…

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Stephen Strasburg, 0.0 // 0.0 // 36.6 DL REMOVED FROM LIST
–If you haven’t seen the news, he has severe nerve damage. He’s doing nothing. It’s unlikely, in my opinion, he’ll ever pitch again. It’s almost certain he won’t pitch this season. But because he’s under contract for years, we have to keep playing this game. He has a similar argument to Dizzy Dean for enshrinement, performance-wise. But not personality-wise. It’s over.

Yasmani Grandal, 0.0 // 0.3 // 37.8
–His season is a lot better, at least. Has 3 more doubles, and the same amount of homers as last season, in half the plate appearances. But his Hall chances – whatever they were with a PED suspension – are disappearing.

Chris Sale, 0.4 // 1.3 // 46.7 DL
Out until early August and back on the 60 day DL, and if you think he’ll be back in early August, you haven’t been watching Sale’s career.

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob deGrom, 0.1 // 1.5 // 42.6 DL
–We’ve discussed it here, deGrom’s HOF case was simple. How many starts could he get in before injury destroyed him? Now he has TJ and he’s out this year, and most of next year. Time keeps ticking. Some say he’s already done enough. I doubt 75% of voters agree.

Paul Goldschmidt, 0.2 // 2.0 // 56.0
–400th career double, and now rumors are swirling he may be on the trade market for the sinking Cardinals. A deal to a contender could set him up for a ring.

Clayton Kershaw, 0.4 // 1.8 // 75.3
–There’s a power to talent. If you’re a middle reliever speaking out against your team’s political views, you get DFAd. If you’re Clayton Kershaw, they immediately set up a Christian Day for you.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, 0.3 // 1.1 // 51.9
–2,000 hits. I know people don’t understand this, but Cutch is likely headed to 10 years on ballots, slowly gaining ground, and then eventual induction by the vets committee. Trust me.

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

Josh Donaldson, 0.3 // 0.2 // 46.4
–6 hits this year. And 5 of them are homers. .154 batting average, .538 slugging percentage. Insane.

Evan Longoria, 0.3 // 0.4 // 54.9
–Only played in 7 games since last update, since he’s basically used solely against lefties at this point. 3 homers and 3 doubles in those 7. He’s still productive, but not out there enough to get the major milestones.

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, 0.8 // 1.0 // 71.3
–The Braves hit him very well, or not at all. 11 hits in 5.2 innings. But he struck out 10, putting him above 3,250.  

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.0 // 0.0 // 57.9 DL
–Just 3-22 on his rehab assignment. You never count out Votto, but solid shot he’ll never get it back.

Zack Greinke, 0.3 // 0.7 // 66.2
–You know what this update will be. 6 starts, 2.30 ERA in May. 0 wins. Still sits 1 short of 225. The Royals are killing him.

Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, 0.1 // -0.6 // 68.0
–Tin foil hat time. Cabrera is 116 Plate Appearances in this year, but has 0 homers. His last 3 hits? Doubles. By the end of the year MLB might be giving opponents bouncy balls to pitch to him with

Justin Verlander, 0.1 // 0.2 // 78.3
–Verlander famously wants to pitch a billion years and be the next guy to win 300. I think he’s finding out how hard that is. 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA at age 40, still 4 short of 250. Gonna have to call Cortez about that fountain of youth thing.

2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 3

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE

For update 2 click HERE

This is update 3/10. We will update approximately every 16 games

Age
Player fWAR since last update // Season fWAR // Career fWAR

Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Francisco Alvarez 0.8 // 0.8 // 0.8 NEW ADDITION
— 4 home runs and 3 doubles since the last update put Alvarez back on the list. Embarrassing base running blunders make you remember he’s just 21.

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom -0.1 // -0.4 // 0.3
–The good news is, he’s raking in AAA. with a 159 wRC+. But zero patience at MLB level. 13BB/12K in AAA 2BB/13K in MLB.

Anthony Volpe 0.1 // 0.9 // 0.9
— Beat Jeter to his 1st career grand slam by 10 years. Only one of Jeter’s career.

Gunnar Henderson 0.1 // 0.2 // 1.0
–His one tool this year has been walks. That’s fading. 4BB against 18 Ks since last update.

Riley Greene 0.9 // 1.2 // 2.0
–5 3-hit games this season. Had 2 all of last year, in over double the games.

Corbin Carroll 0.5 // 1.6 // 3.0
–Has now played about a half year in the majors – prorate out a full season and we’re looking at 40 doubles, 25 homers, and 30 steals. That’s several years before his prime.

Michael Harris II 0.0 // 0.0 // 4.8
–0-18 last 5 games. I spent much of last year saying he was playing over his head. Well he’s playing under now. Classic sophomore slump.

Julio Rodriguez 0.2 // 0.8 // 6.2
–He’s underperforming his xwOBA by 55 points and it’s actually 7 points higher than last year’s. Excuse me if I don’t join the panic.

Wander Franco 0.4 // 2.1 // 6.8
–A 2-21 slide has his average under .300, but only 1K in all that time. The last 8 balls he’s hit over 95MPH have all been outs. Bad luck.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras -0.3 // 0.4 // 1.5
–Last time I said he had an unsustainably low HR rate. Last 4 starts he’s given up at least one in each. You see the results.

Nolan Gorman 1.3 // 1.9 // 2.4 NEW ADDITION
— If you’re the sort that screams about WAR not judging by situation, well, Gorman has a 1.98 WPA on the year. 5th in baseball. So his league leading 1.032 OPS is directly winning games.

Hunter Greene -0.2 // 0.9 // 2.5
–Yes, he’s given up 7 HR in last 4 starts. And that sucks. But his last 4 starts were 3 in CIN and 1 in COL. No chance for pitchers.

Geraldo Perdomo 0.3 // 2.0 // 2.7
–5-35 has Perdomo looking a lot more like himself – but 2 of those 5 hits are homers. How???

Reid Detmers 0.7 // 1.0 // 3.1
–FIP is almost a full run and a half below his ERA, and just struck out 12 Twins in 5.2 innings. The chances that he’ll become a star someday are not zero.

Bobby Witt 0.5 // 1.0 // 3.3
–His K:B ratio is over 4:1. As long as his numbers make you think “that would be a star pitcher!” it’s not going to happen for him. I wonder if anyone in KC is smart enough to realize this?

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Andres Munoz 0.0 // 0.1 // 2.3 DL
–He’s a middle reliever who had advanced to throwing on flat ground. So he’s not exactly long for staying on a HOF tracker.

Isaac Paredes 0.4 // 1.2 // 3.2
–OBP soared from last update from .330 to .350. Thought he might be back to his walking ways. But nope! Only 4 walks, but THREE HBP. Whatever works.

Alejandro Kirk 0.0 // 0.3 // 4.9
–In the last update Kirk sat 4 games, and entered 3 other games late. His early season slump has resulted in lost playing time, and maybe a lost season..

Dylan Carlson -0.1 // 0.2 // 5.1 DL
–Thanks to injuries and other’s struggles, Dylan started getting regular playing time. And promptly got himself hurt.

Spencer Strider 0.5 // 1.8 // 6.6
–Last start he K’d 7 in 5 innings. Not bad right? It was his lowest strikeout total of the year.

Andres Gimenez -0.1 // 0.4 // 8.5
–I’ve seen a lot of commentary on how bad his EV is. It is bad. 83.8. Last year was 87.8. That doesn’t mean last year was a fluke. In the two seasons before it was 86.8 and 86.3. a 24 year old didn’t suddenly get weaker. Unless he is injured, he’s going to improve.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -0.2 // 0.8 // 9.9
–In the Jays 6 game slide he’s 3-21 with 9 Ks

Fernando Tatis Jr. 1.1 // 1.2 // 14.8
–The Padres have been terrible, but Tatis doesn’t care. 5 HR and 3 2B since last update.

Juan Soto 0.5 // 1.5 // 24.3
–Told you last time he was heating up. .964 OPS since last update. Someone is remembering they have a payday coming.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Steven Kwan 0.4 // 0.6 // 4.7
–His longest safe hit of the season? 264 foot single. <–That was my update last time and I LOVED it. And he’s since destroyed it, with 4 longer hits including a home run. Jerk.

Mike Soroka 0.0 // 0.0 // 4.9 AAA
–He hasn’t looked terrible in the minors – FIP at 3.71 much lower than ERA thanks to crazy .364 BABIP. Fans seem to expect his promotion soon. But he also hasn’t looked that good yet, or durable. Just 29 innings over 7 starts. I don’t know why Braves fans feel like he’s going to add anything to the MLB team where he can’t be babied?

Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.0 // 0.0 // 5.2 DL
–Yes he’s back on the DL, and yes the Marlins continue to look insane for this crazy CF experiment that is not only the reason he’s hurt, but isn’t working when he’s healthy. Metrics are mixed, and of course it’s a SSS, but the eyes and the logic tell you that his -6 DRS is the one to believe.

Triston McKenzie 0.0 5.3 DL
–3 scoreless in his first rehab start, and the Indians need him back.

Emmanuel Clase 0.2 // 0.4 // 5.4
–Had a pretty rough stretch actually, blew 2 saves bringing his season total to 5. But in that time his FIP actually dropped. He’s still leading the AL in saves. He’s still 25. And he’s still gone 21 innings without giving up a homer. If, for some reason, you’re trying to figure out what closers will make the HOF in 20 years, he’s still easily the pick.

Trevor Rogers 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
–Well he’s scheduled to start extended Spring Training now. In late May. So, you know, if you still have faith in his comeback season – I envy your resilience.

Alek Manoah -0.3 // 0.0 // 5.8
–Last start was decent, yes. But his FIP is over 6. He has 33 BB to 40 K. And his velocity has dropped. Doesn’t he have to be hurt and idiotically pitching through it?

Adley Rutschman 0.4 // 1.4 // 6.7
–Leading the AL in walks with 38 gives him 103 for his career in 680 career PAs. Not totally out of the question that he could pass Salvador Perez this year. 187 walks in 5,216 PAs.

Luis Robert Jr. 1.4 // 2.1 // 8.7
–In the midst of the White Sox collapse, Robert has exploded. His 13 HR now ties his career high, in his career low at bats.

Bo Bichette 0.6 // 2.0 // 13.8
–Why is Bichette having a great year? His BB% year over year is basically the same (5.8 – 5.3) ISO is the same (.180-.179) his BABIP is the same (.347 – .348) But his strikeouts have dropped from 22.1% to 16.1%. Contact matters.

Ronald Acuna Jr. 0.6 // 2.6 // 21
–Same for Acuna, who’s early season power numbers are off his peak because he’s been hitting so many grounders – but he’s been hitting REALLY FREAKING HARD grounders, and his K% has gone from 23.6% to 14%. Remarkable.

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Daulton Varsho -0.2 // 0.2 // 7.3
–It’s really difficult for me not to spend all year dunking on the dumb writer that said Varsho was going to break out because he got to hit in Toronto. I considered just saying, congrats on your 250th hit! But I can’t help it:

10 game road swing made his season look good: 12-35 3 HR 1.054 OPS
10 game home stand: 4-37 with 1 HR
Back on the road for one game? Homered.

HIS OPS is currently FOUR HUNDRED AND SEVENTY-EIGHT points higher on the road.

Anyway, no. Playing in Toronto isn’t going to suddenly make Varsho explode at the plate. Please let the paid media class know this.

Trent Grisham -0.5  // 0.1 // 7.3
–He lost half a WAR? Really? HALF A WAR in 16 games? Well since last update he’s 2-39. So at least he’s due, I guess.

Ke’Bryan Hayes 0.2 // 0.5 // 7.4
–The offense hasn’t fully come around to the metrics. But the defense? Yeah, 8 DRS already. On pace for baseball’s premier defender to have an even better year.

Nico Hoerner 0.3 // 1.3 // 7.8
–Sometimes you worry about a guy coming off the DL before their ready, and sometimes they get 3 hits and 2 doubles with 4 RBI in their first game back.

Luis Arraez 0.2 // 1.3 // 8.4
–Reminder that WAR ain’t really his thing, or his HOF path. A .383 batting average still with only 9 strikeouts? That’s his path. Really pretty numbers you expect in 1930.

Logan Webb 0.6 // 1.2 // 10.6
–Has given up 1 run in his last two starts. Both no-decisions. That the Giants lost. Where they scored a total of 1 run overall. I’m not saying Webb is a serial killer, I’m just saying he’s closer to being one than he was a week ago.

Austin Riley -0.1 // 0.3 // 10.7
Doubled against the Dodgers for his 500th career hit. So that’s nice for him. Just ignore everything else this year.

Gleyber Torres 0.1 // 0.6 // 10.9
Has a 112 OPS+ this year, after a 114 OPS+ last year, bringing his career OPS+ to 114. Gotta say, makes him pretty boring to track.

Kyle Tucker 0.1 // 0.9 // 12.0
Tucker has continued his uninspiring stretch to make his season look pretty normal at this point. So let’s discuss something else. Did you know the only stat Tucker has ever led the league in was triples? It’s true. He somehow got his career high in 2020 of all years with 6. Sorry for making you remember 2020.

Julio Urias -0.3 // 0.2 // 13.0 DL
Got absolutely blasted by the Cardinals for 4 homers in the same inning. Then later on we discover, oh! He was hurt at the time! WHY DO BASEBALL PLAYERS DO THAT? Who couldn’t figure out after 3 homers that he was hurting his team?

Yordan Alvarez 0.8 // 1.7 // 15.7
1.019 OPS last year, 1.015 OPS this year. So he’s getting worse.

Ozzie Albies -0.1 // 0.5 // 15.7
Yes, he’s slumping. .484 OPS since last update. A lot of Braves seem to be slumping to some degree. Of course, the Braves have the best record in the NL, so I guess they don’t need half their team.

Rafael Devers 0.0 // 1.0 // 19.1
Devers has always had more power than people realize. And it’s being hidden again by his low BABIP. His ISO is .276, near-elite and the highest of his career.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Sandy Alcantara 0.6 // 1.1 // 14.3
–Honestly, I don’t see much more than luck at play with his 5.05 ERA this season. His numbers are all pretty within norms, and a normal regression worse than his Cy Young season. But don’t you think a little rest would do the most used pitcher in baseball some good? Last 4 starts have followed the ineffective pattern of the rest of the season, and he’s thrown over 100 pitches in all of them.

Willy Adames 0.2 // 0.8 // 14.5
–100th career HR turned out to be the GWRBI over the Giants in SF.

Cody Bellinger 0.1 // 1.5 // 18.8 DL
–I’m not really buying the Cody-of-old narrative for a guy who is over performing his xwOBA by 40 points this year. But he’s certainly better. And somewhere in between MVP and whatever he was the last 2 seasons is a pretty big win for the Cubs.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Tommy Edman, 0.4 // 1.1 // 14.3
–Tommy has such a good glove and instincts that he can play anywhere. So the Cardinals need him in the OF for the time being, because Paul DeJong can only play SS. And as a result, because Tommy Edman is so valuable he can play anywhere, WAR says he’s less valuable because he is….playing anywhere! WAR ain’t perfect.

Yoan Moncada, 0.3 // 0.7 // 14.3
–Hasn’t homered since his return from the DL, but at least whatever pox he had last year seems to be behind him.

Corbin Burnes, 0.3 // 0.7 // 15
–2022: 9 10+ K games; 2023: 0 (max this year is 8)

Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
–Says he wants to return September 1st from the DL, I suppose just so he can kill someone else’s dreams of being on the playoff roster.

German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL
–Does anyone else think German cut his own UCL just so he didn’t have to pitch for the Rockies anymore?

Shane Bieber, 0.3 // 1.0 // 19.8
–10 starts, 8 quality starts, and just a 3-3 record. The Hall of Fame is going to lock out pitchers for a long time before it gets smart about this modern era.

Shohei Ohtani, 0.4 // 2.2 // 25.1
–His batting average (.282) is almost double what batters are hitting against him (.142)

Carlos Correa, 0.1 // 0.3 // 31.6
–Fangraphs has a new article about not worrying about Correa’s slow start – but I dunno, maybe they’ll want to withdraw that after they see his physical.

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, 0.1 // 1.1 // 19.2
–Full time DH has helped him stay on the field. He’s already played more games than 2 seasons in his career, with another one coming up. Sad, really.

Matt Olson, 0.4 // 1.4 // 19.5
–Olson has the highest K% of his career. But also the highest BABIP! And also the highest ISO of any full season. Apparently swinging from his heels is paying off.

Corey Seager, 0.4 // 0.9 // 27.1
–If you were scared Seager’s hot start was going to be ruined by his injury – his OPS has gone up 50 points in the 5 games he’s been off the DL

Alex Bregman, 0.1 // 0.3 // 31.4
–Told you last time he was underperforming his XWOBA by 40 points, no worries! Well, the gap has closed to 33 points, only it’s the XWOBA that’s dropping. So that ain’t cool.

Lindor, Francisco 0.4 // 1.6 // 43.6
–Did you see MLB network playing up the Mets playing the Indians for the first time since the trade by debating if the Mets would do the trade again? I wouldn’t say they trashed Lindor, but the question even being posed was certainly a message. That night Lindor got 3 hits, including a walk-off over the Indians. Guardians. Dammit. Guardians. That’s never going to stick. Not even gonna fix it.

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7 DL
–Just started swinging a bat again. I’m honestly not sure if it’s good new or bad news that Story is swinging a bat.

Javier Baez, -0.2 // 0.3 // 24.1
–His latest 0-16 run against Pittsburgh and Nationals pitchers…yuck. Guess the brief hot streak is over.

Matt Chapman, 0.1 // 1.9 // 25.9
–Well the insane hot streak is gone, but still cool that his league leading 19 doubles are 4 more than he got in all 2021 – in 1/3 the at bats.

Aaron Nola, 0.4 // 1.2 // 31.1
–10K outing over the Cubs could be a sign that he’s rounding back into form? It’s just such a weird year for everyone with this new wacky ball that’s obviously secretly been put in to help the rule changes look like they are causing more excitement.

Trea Turner, 0.1 // 0.7 // 32.4
–It continues. Hits in 17 of last 19 games, and his average has dropped 6 points. One of the best hitters in baseball just isn’t doing it. I’m shaken to my core.

Xander Bogaerts, 0.4 // 2.0 // 36.2
–Year two of the high spending but still somehow disappointing Padres has now infected Xander, who isn’t looking too pretty lately. But at least his contract is over in 37 years.

Jose Ramirez, 0.6 // 1.5 // 42.7
–Most recent hit was just 6th homer, but 2nd of a double header, and 1,200th hit of his career.

Bryce Harper, 0.3 // 0.4 // 44.6
–Just passed 300 doubles, 1 hit from 1,400. 13 homers from 300. It’s getting to be legacy padding time for Harper’s career.

Manny Machado, 0.2 // 0.4 // 47.0
–Was in a 1-20 slump before he broke his hand and STILL the Pads resisted putting him on the DL for a few days. If you want to know how their year is going.

Mookie Betts, 0.5 // 2.0 // 52.1
–Betts has stolen double figures in bases every year of his career – even 2020! – Except his partial season call up year. He’s only 1 for 2 in steal attempts this year even with the bigger bases. These are the things that keep me up at night.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, -0.1 // 0.3 // 32.5
–He got his 1,000th career hit – but there’s little doubt he’s fading. His SLG is .413, and that’s playing in Coors field. He was the obvious frontrunner from the 2016 Cubs to make the Hall, but now I’m wondering if that’s Rizzo?

Aaron Judge, 1.1 // 2.0 // 38.2
–Dear lord Aaron Judge. Yes, he won player of the week with 5 homers. That may not sound shocking. But remember it was all on the road. Not even taking advantage of Yankee Stadium.

Christian Yelich, 0.5 // 1.5 // 38.2
–6-13 with 3 HR and 7 RBI over the Royals, and you are trying to tell me time travel isn’t possible.

Mike Trout, 0.3 // 1.7 // 83.9
–As people start lamenting another Trout-less playoff year, and blaming him as they often do…currently the Angels would be in 1st place in the AL Central.

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.6 // 0.9 // 30.6
–A recent slump hasn’t helped, but Realmuto is back to his career norms – 111 OPS+, 113 for his career – still only 3 homers on the year.

Gerrit Cole, -0.2 // 1.7 // 40.4
–Tampa hit 2 homers off him in back to back starts, the only 4 homers he’s given up all year.

Nolan Arenado, 0.9 // 1.0 // 46.7
–Hit homers in 5 straight games, drove in his career 1,000th run the next day, and then hit a homer the day after that.

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Jason Heyward, 0.0 // 0.6 // 33.9
–His shocking, power fueled hot start is over. Heyward is 4-27 since the last update, and losing playing time again. 3 hits in his last two games got him back over the Mendoza line, but I think we have to start questioning the next end of the line for Jason.

Anthony Rendon, 0.2 // 0.6 // 34.7
–It’s May 23, Rendon is on the DL, and he has 1 homer on the season. I held out hope longer than most people, but it’s time to pull the plug on any dreams he would return to anything like his former glory.

Anthony Rizzo, 0.6 // 1.7 // 36.7
–6 homers since last update, 11 on his season. Average is over .300, OPS is at .907, and he’s doing it in pinstripes. If Rizzo wanted to make a late career HOF run, this is how you would draw it up.

Giancarlo Stanton, 0.0 // 0.3 // 43.0 DL
–About to start his rehab assignment. Sitting 18 homers short of 400.

Jose Altuve, 0.1 // 0.1 // 48.6
–He’s back, and with milestones in almost every statistic you can think of that he can still easily reach this year. His rebound from injury will make a big statement about his Hall chances.

Freddie Freeman, 1.1 // 2.0 // 52.4
–Hit a grand slam for career homer #300. At this point, he’s sailing towards the Hall.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Stephen Strasburg, 0.0 // 0.0 // 36.6 DL
–I haven’t heard officially he’s out for the year, so I have to keep looking for damn updates all season. Nothing. No updates. Just declare him done, and I can remove him from the list. I found his official twitter on baseball-reference and…”this page does not exist” – fitting.

Yasmani Grandal, 0.0 // 0.3 // 37.8
–Well, good news is that he’s hitting .333 since the last update. But with just 1 double and 2 walks. The batting average couldn’t be more empty. It’s as empty as the soul of a White Sox fan this year.

Chris Sale, 0.5 // 0.9 // 46.3
4 straight quality starts, and against good offenses. Sale is looking like he’s back.

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob deGrom, 0.1 // 1.5 // 42.6 DL
–We laughed at him for saying he was choosing Texas because he wanted to win. As of now, the Mets are fighting for the last Wild Card spot, and the Rangers are in first place. And they’ve done it basically without: Jacob deGrom! Who has been as injury absent as ever.

Paul Goldschmidt, 0.5 // 1.8 // 55.8
–30 consecutive steals without being caught. The MLB record is 50 by another Cardinal, Vince Coleman. But Vince did his in less than a year. Paul’s streak has been going since 2019.

Clayton Kershaw, 0.4 // 1.4 // 74.9
–Age 35 season, leading the league in wins, and the only dependable starter the Dodgers have. Just sign him to a 40 year deal now, and let’s move on.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, 0.3 // 0.8 // 51.6
–Has been purely a DH since April 13th. Seems to be working OK. Has hit .333 since last update, and might get to 2,000 hits before the next one. That’s the magic number to have a Hall chance.

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

Josh Donaldson, 0.0 // -0.1 // 46.1
–last time I mocked that we were told Donaldson was almost ready for a rehab assignment, when we were told he was already supposed to be back in the first place.
Well the rehab never came. But now the word being used is IMMINENT.

Evan Longoria, 0.0 // 0.1 // 54.6
–His last hit was the 1900th of his career, and a homer to boot. Since then he’s struck out 7 times in a row, and hasn’t played in a week. He’s back in the lineup tonight, but yeah, it’s not looking promising.

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, 0.3 // 0.2 // 70.5
–OK, but really. He’s back. He’s given up 1 run in the last 11 innings, and we shouldn’t ever doubt Max again, and he’s probably going to be taking the mound when he’s older than Moses.

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.0 // 0.0 // 57.9 DL
–OK, so last time I told you Votto’s shoulder was “night and day” better. And now this time I can tell you it’s “incomparable” – which I guess is a good sign. I mean, it sure sounds like his shoulder feels better than mine. Like he should be on commercials hocking shoulder products. I just don’t know how amazing his shoulder has to feel before it’s good enough to, you know, play baseball.

Zack Greinke, 0.2 // 0.4 // 65.9
–We’re now 1/3 of the season in, and Greinke still has only 1 win, and still needs 1 win to get to 225. That ain’t no guarantee on this Royals team. It might be time to focus on other milestones for him. Oooh! 1 more wild pitch and he’ll have 100 for his career!

Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, -0.3 // -0.7 // 67.9
–Batting .177 with 0 home runs and an OPS+ of 31. From Miguel Cabrera. I kind of feel like this is a ‘Weekend at Bernies’ type of thing.

Justin Verlander, 0.2 // 0.1 // 78.2
–8 IP of 3 hits in his last start. Verlander might be back too. And he’s 40. How many pitchers under 30 have EVER thrown an 8 inning game? If he can do it, WHAT THE HELL EVERYONE ELSE? WHAT THE HELL?

2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 2

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE

This is update 2/10. We will update approximately every 16 games

Age
Player WAR since last update // Season WAR // Career WAR

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom -0.2 // -0.3 // 0.4
–1 double and 2 BB in 67 Plate appearances on the year. Yeesh. 0-4 with 4Ks yesterday. Double yeesh. Another few weeks like this, and he’ll be off the tracker. But let’s face it, that won’t happen. The Braves won’t put up with this for much longer.

Anthony Volpe — // 0.8 // 0.8 NEW ADDITION
–10 steals without being caught in the big leagues. Welcome to the list kid, he might be a fixture for 20 years.

Gunnar Henderson 0.1 // 0.2// 0.9
–21 walks vs 15 hits on the season. A testament to how often he’s getting on base, but how seldom he’s actually getting hits.

Riley Greene 0.3 // 0.3 // 1.1
–.252 AVG is 2nd among Tigers regulars. Team should move in the fences to about 92 feet away.

Corbin Carroll 0.7 // 1.1 // 2.5
–Currently has a 9 game hitting streak, and that includes missing a few games from injuries, entering the next game as a pinch hitter, and still getting it done. Stud.

Michael Harris II 0.0 // 0.0 // 4.8
–The biggest free swinger you’ll ever see has 2 walks since he returned from the DL – concerned he may actually be a body double.

Julio Rodriguez 0.1 // 0.6 // 6.0
–Yup, 4-33 slump with 14Ks isn’t awesome. But people seem extremely concerned with a 22 year old having a bad week. It’s like everyone forgets everything they know about baseball every single year.

Wander Franco 0.5 // 1.7 // 6.4
–Here’s hoping next ground ball, Wander Franco makes a diving stop, and then performs the Vagina Monologues before throwing to first just to piss people off.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras 0.4 // 0.7 // 1.8
–Had good results – 3 straight quality starts, but velo dip is still concerning to me. He’s given up a ton of fly balls, and an unsustainably low amount of homers. Something has to give.

Geraldo Perdomo 0.8 // 1.7 // 2.4
–Wish I could say I saw this coming, batting .409 with good defense – but I was eagerly awaiting his exit from this list. It won’t be for a while now, but check this out: wOBA – .475 xwOBA – .309

Reid Detmers 0.0 // 0.3 // 2.4
–He’s been a victim of bad defense. Not that the Angels have particularly bad defense, just that they’ve been good at screwing him over and raising his pitch count. I imagine Detmers is going to end up a solid #3 when all said and done. Or, out for the year. Because he’s a pitcher.

Hunter Greene 0.5 // 1.1 // 2.7
–Having a great year, you just wouldn’t know it. 6 starts: 0-1 record. ERA under 3, BABIP an insane .392.

Bobby Witt 0.0 // 0.5 // 2.8
–Peripherals all say he’s a bit better this year, which is good because he’s only 23. And is bad because a bit better isn’t enough to make him good.

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Andres Munoz 0.0 // 0.1 // 2.3 DL
–Undergoing a throwing program in extended spring training

Isaac Parades 0.5 // 0.8 // 2.8
–Ended a long slump with 4 straight multi-hit games, and followed that with what is so far another mini-slump

Alejandro Kirk 0.1 // 0.3 // 4.9
–Strange sudden skill at pitch framing last year has not carried over to this year.

Dylan Carlson 0.1 // 0.3 // 5.2
–Power all but disappeared last year, and has continued into this year. Only 1 HR so far: But it was dead center off of Shohei. Baseball, man.

Spencer Strider 0.7 // 1.3 // 6.1
–57 strikeouts? 57??? He may blow past 300 with ease. I’m declaring it: He’s the best pitcher in baseball.

Andres Gimenez 0.0 // 0.5 // 8.6
–Only credited with 1 barrel so far this year. EV is below 85.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.4 // 1.0 // 10.1
–If that .320 avg seems unsustainable, his xAVG is .334

Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1 // 0.1 // 13.7
–Had a 9 game hitting streak after his return. Maybe 2 straight hitless games means his ringworm meds are wearing off.

Juan Soto 0.1// 22.9
–Has raised his batting average 49 points in 6 games. Watch out.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Steven Kwan 0.3 // 0.2 // 4.3
–His longest safe hit of the season? 264 foot single.

Mike Soroka 0.0 // 0.0 // 4.9 DL
–lights out 1st 3 AAA outings – then he gave up 7 ER in 3 innings. So…

Jazz Chisolm Jr. 0.9 // 0.9 // 5.2
–Back to back games with multiple steals – makes me feel like it’s 1985 again!

Emmanuel Clase 0.2 // 0.2 // 5.2
–Really effective, again. Leading the league in saves, again. But only 9K in 16.1 IP? “What’s up with that?” – Cliff Claven

Triston McKenzie 0.0 5.3 DL
–Currently throwing bullpen sessions, rehab seems ahead of schedule.

Trevor Rogers 0.1 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
–Just as he was turning the corner – back on the DL! Who says you can’t go home?

Alek Manoah 0.3 // 0.0 // 6.1
–Led the league in HBP both years of his career – has 4 this year, starting to pick it up. Both in effectiveness, and drilling dudes.

Adley Rutschman 0.0 // 1.0 // 6.3
–Games missed this year: 0. How many players can say that…THAT ARE CATHERS?

Luis Robert Jr. 0.0 // 0.7 // 7.3
–After I praised him he goes on a 6-59 slump. It’s like they want me to look dump.

Bo Bichette 0.5 // 1.4 // 13.2
–Yes he’s still leading the league in hits for the 3rd straight year – but now he’s also leading the league in total bases.

Ronald Acuna Jr.0.9 // 2.0 // 20.4
–2.1 WAR last year, 2.0 WAR so far this year.

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Ke’Bryan Hayes 0.2 // 0.3 // 7.2
–.279 OBA to .341xOBA – he’s hitting as poorly as ever, but his peripherals tell us it’s actually bad luck this time. The launch angle is vastly improved and results should follow.

Nico Hoerner 0.6 // 1.0 // 7.5
–He’s hitting .304! pretty good! But less than 2 weeks ago he was hitting .367

Daulton Varsho 0.1 // 0.4 // 7.5
–3 straight multi hit games including 2 homers, might finally be coming around.

Trent Grisham 0.3 // 0.6 // 7.8
–Yeah blah blah small sample size, but so far Grisham is a 0 OAA and a -2 DRS. Bet you didn’t expect THAT.

Luis Arraez 0.2 // 1.1 // 8.2
–He’s still batting .424 and we’re into May. .424 is what Rogers Hornsby batted in 1924, only with much more power, and I assume, racism.

Logan Webb 0.4 // 0.6 // 10.0
–You’re looking at the guy leading the league in IP with 45, so Logan Webb is out to show he’s one of the few workhorse aces in baseball.

Gleyber Torres 0.0 // 0.5 // 10.8
Didn’t mention his 100th career HR last time, so…he has passed 100 career HR!

Austin Riley -0.1 // 0.4 // 10.8
I am not used to Austin Riley having any sort of bad stretch of games. I’m not sure what to write here. I assume he’ll have 10 HR next week.

Kyle Tucker,-0.3 // 0.8 // 11.9
Speaking of slumps, 2-22 from Tucker? After his start? Ack. How disappointing.

Julio Urias,-0.1 // 0.5 // 13.3
Last start: 7 innings, 1 hit, 10 K. That’ll do pig, that’ll do.

Yordan Alvarez 0.2 // 0.9 // 14.9
5 games in a row without an RBI – 7 all year before that.

Ozzie Albies 0.6 // 0.6 // 15.8
8 HR in 64 games last year. 9 HR in 32 this year

Rafael Devers 0.3 // 1.0 // 19.1
League leading 11 HR has given him career #150

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Sandy Alcantara 0.0 // 0.5 // 13.7
–1 quality start all year.

Willy Adames 0.0 // 0.6 // 14.3
–0-16 run, is anyone in this age range doing anything lately?

Cody Bellinger 1.1 // 1.5 // 18.8
–Yup. Cody is back to hitting home runs – 7 so far – and robbing them from Jason Heyward, the guy he replaced, in front of Dodgers fans. Bet that felt good.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Tommy Edman, 0.6 // 0.7 // 13.9
–5 HR is 2nd on the Cardinals, which is more a testament to just how terrible the Cardinals are.

Yoan Moncada, 0.0 // 0.4 // 14.0 DL
–Has begun his rehab assignment

Corbin Burnes, 0.3 // 0.4 // 14.7
–Burnes hasn’t been Burnes, but his ERA has dropped 4 starts in a row

Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
–Now throwing at 150 feet

German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL
–Needs Tommy John surgery, his year is over. He still clears the minimum WAR for his age, so he’ll remain on the list.

Shane Bieber, 0.0 // 0.7 // 19.5
–Hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in a start all year

Shohei Ohtani, 0.9 // 1.8 // 24.7
–1.315 OPS over 7 game hitting streak

Carlos Correa, 0.2 // 0.2 // 31.5
–What’s wrong? 87mph exit velocity is killing him

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, 0.8 // 1.0 // 19.1
–Back in one of his HR binges, with 6 since the last update.

Matt Olson, 0.1 // 1.0 // 19.1
–14 singles and 16xbh on the year,

Corey Seager, 0.5 // 26.7 DL
–Should be off the DL by the next update

Alex Bregman, 0.2 // 0.2 // 31.3
–Why the bad numbers? luck. Under performing his xwOBA by over 40 points

Lindor, Francisco 0.2 // 1.2 // 43.2
–Has almost played every single inning of SS this year – including in both ends of double headers within 3 days – and is in a deep deep slump. Dear lord, give him a day.

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7 DL
–Honestly can’t find an injury update on Story in the last month, not sure if it’s just that people don’t care. He IS doing stuff.

Javier Baez, 0.7 // 0.5 // 24.3
–Baez is hitting .349 since his embarrassing benching. Possible the incident kicked him in the ass.

Matt Chapman, 0.7 // 1.8 // 25.8
–16 freaking doubles already. That’s an 80 pace. He’s just absolutely on fire.

Aaron Nola, 0.3 // 0.8 // 30.7
–Hasn’t K’d less than a batter an inning since he was 22. This year? 7.0, Lowest of his career. And without outlier starts dragging him down. Wonder if something is wrong?

Trea Turner, -0.1 // 0.5 // 32.1
–Has a 6 game hitting streak where his average has dropped 6 points. And it wasn’t great before. Weirdest slump ever.

Xander Bogaerts, 0.4 // 1.6 // 35.8
–Yeah he has slumped lately to bring him back to just above his (still very good) career norms, but his abnormally low (for him) .298 BABIP, tells me that his career average is likely a low point this year, and boy would that be swell.

Jose Ramirez, 0.3 // 0.9 // 42.1
–Last year’s league leader in IBB with 20 is leading the league again with 6. Considering how amazingly productive he is, imagine if he had protection so he had more chances in clutch situations?

Bryce Harper, 0.1 // 0.1 // 44.3
–You know he’s back – but he’s not really back. Still adjusting. One double his only XBH – and yet he still has a .916 OPS in his short, powerless sample size. What a guy.

Manny Machado, 0.2 // 0.2 // 46.8
–Yeah, his season sucks, but have you seen him lately? Last 7: 3 HR 1.205 OPS. He’s going to be just fine.

Mookie Betts, 0.6 // 1.5 // 51.6
–It’s totally insane that Mookie Betts is just sort of, playing SS. Like it’s little league and you can shift someone anywhere. But you know what? In his extremely small sample size, he’s so far a +1 DRS at the position. The dude is amazing.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, 0.5 // 0.4 // 32.6
–Hit his 175th career HR, and next update will bring his 1,000th career hit.

Aaron Judge, 0.0 // 1.0 // 37.1 DL
–And we see why Judge’s last year was able to happen. He somehow, someway stayed healthy. That’s unusual for him. We will see how he responds to this injury when he is back next tues.

Christian Yelich, 0.5 // 1.0 // 37.7
–424 foot home run in Colorado, along with a 420 foot double. It’s the only stadium he can seem to elevate and smoke the ball anymore. Make a trade.

Mike Trout, 0.6 // 1.4 // 83.6
–2023 average: .303 Career average: 303. People really have to stop doubting this guy. If he’s on the field, he’s a star.

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.2 // 0.3 // 30.0
–3 triples. 3 home runs. and… 3 walks on the year.

Gerrit Cole, 0.7 // 1.9 // 40.6
–7 starts in, and the most runs he’s given up in any of them is: 2. They still checking for spider tack???

Nolan Arenado, -0.3 // 0.1 // 45.8
–Why the drop? Try a 5-50 run. All 5 hits were singles. (Homer today? Might be over)

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Madison Bumgarner, -0.2 // -0.4 // 32.4 DROPPED OFF LIST
He was so bad he actually played himself off of the list. Getting DFAd had nothing to do with it. Bumgarner was dropped by the DBacks AND a random Internet list. ouch.

George Springer, -0.5 // -0.5 // 32.5 DROPPED OFF LIST
–Springer had to age super well if he was to have a Hall of Fame chance. Instead at age 33 he is posting a 61 wRC+. Yeah, he’s been unlucky and may turn this around. But this ain’t the Horseshoes HOF, son.

Jason Heyward, 0.4 // 0.6 // 33.9
–His 135 OPS+ is the highest of his career. Sure, it’s only 60 at bats. But I’d have lost a lot of money betting against him getting 60 at bats anywhere. Like, I wouldn’t have thought he’d last that long with the Savannah Bananas.

Anthony Rendon, 0.3 // 0.3 // 34.5
–There’s a lot to like about what Rendon is doing, I mean he’s posting a .375 xOBA. He has a .400 OBP! But still, he has 3 doubles all year. That’s the entirety of his XBH tally. He’s hit 2 balls all year that would have been a home run somewhere. Anemic.

Anthony Rizzo, 0.3 // 1.1 // 36.1
–Picked up his 1,500th hit, a key minimum for someone who is looking at Hall induction by some vets committee in 2165, or something. The question is, how close can he get to magic # 2,000?

Giancarlo Stanton, 0.0 // 0.3 // 43.0 DL
–Reports are he’s begun light jogging, which, I mean, doesn’t that mean he’s 100%?

Jose Altuve, 0.0 // 0.0 // 48.5 DL
–Has started taking batting practice. Will be back in plenty of time to face the Rockies, and Daniel Bard on July 4th. Bard is back, has thrown 5 innings, and hit one batter.

Freddie Freeman, 0.7 // 0.9 // 51.3
–The guy who has led the league in doubles 3 different times currently has doubled in 4 straight games. Currently rooting for the Pads to come back and tie the Dodgers, so Freeman has a solid shot at another AB to make it 5.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Stephen Strasburg, 0.0 // 0.0 // 36.6 DL
–He’s actually begun working out in some way again. He’s under contract for 3 years after this one, so I suppose the Nationals are going to make him give some effort to earn that money, rather than just sit and collect.

Yasmani Grandal, 0.0 // 0.3 // 37.8
–I picked on how easy it was to run on Grandal last time, so, even though that’s gotten worse, this time I’ll tell you that he’s even leading the league in passed balls with 3!

Chris Sale, 0.6 // 0.4 // 45.8
6.38 ERA, but if you believe FIP he’s at 4.01. Pretty good! Even more so, he’s struck out 45 in 35 innings, and that includes a 5 inning start with 0 Ks.

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob deGrom, 0.5 // 1.4 // 42.5 DL
–The race continues between DeGrom being unhittable and unpitchable. Another DL stint, as he had to exit one start at 4 hitless innings and another start after 3.2. Not sure why they don’t just take out every nerve in his body, and let him pitch every inning from now on.

Paul Goldschmidt, 0.6 // 1.3 // 55.3
–The Cardinals may be pathetic, but don’t blame it on this 35 year old, who is posting a better OPS than his career average and leading the league in doubles with 14. Sign him til he’s 50!

Clayton Kershaw, 0.0 // 1.0 // 74.5
–After win 200, picked up 201 & 202 in consecutive starts, giving up only 1 ER total.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, -0.1 // 0.5 // 51.3
–Yes, the crazy hot start is over, but 3HR since last update means that he still is heading toward some big milestones this year.

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

Josh Donaldson, -0.1 // 46.1
–Rumor is he will soon begin a rehab assignment from an injury he was already supposed to be back from. So you can see my confidence in his health.

Evan Longoria, -0.3 // 0.1 // 54.6
–After a strong start, is now just 4 for his last 32, and losing playing time pretty dramatically in the process. Not great. Did score his 1,000th career run, so there’s that.

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, -0.1 / -0.1 // 70.2
–After disappearing for 10 days due to a…sticky situation…he got absolutely rocked by the Detroit Tigers, which isn’t exactly Murderer’s Row. I mean the hitters. Not the city itself, which certainly could be.

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.0 // 0.0 // 57.9 DL
–Well, it was reported that Votto is now progressing “night and day” which, ok. That’s always been a dumb phrase. He’s recovering at 9 AM folks, and at 6 PM, his injury is still healing. Great news!

Zack Greinke, -0.1 // 0.2 // 65.7
–It took 7 starts, but Greinke shutout the Orioles over 6 innings for win 224. The combo of old man Greinke pitching well enough, and the Royals scoring enough runs means that sometime near the end of June he’ll be on pace to finally get 225.

Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, -0.3 // -0.4 // 68.2
–Age 40 OPS, Cabrera .445 – Greg Maddux .454

Justin Verlander, -0.1 // -0.1 // 78.0
–Yeah, so, for those of you scoring at home, the Tigers beat both Scherzer and Verlander last week. And they beat Adam Wainwright today, if you want to make this an ancient pitcher thing.

2023 HOF Pace Tracker Update 1

For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.

This Hall of Fame tracker is here to tell us what active players are on pace to make the Hall of Fame.

This is done by looking at EVERY Hall of Famer (elected as a player), and looking at their fWAR, and comparing it to what a Hall of Famer accomplishes at their age.

People think of the Hall of Fame as Babe Ruth, and not Earl Averill. But Earl is a Hall of Famer in the same standing.

It’s easy-ish to identify future Hall of Famers like a Trout or a Kershaw – but fierce arguments underneath them. It’s kind of silly. Trout and Kershaw are easy pics, however when with think of the Hall in Ruthian terms, we try to measure players up to that standard of legend, where most if not all of the very best fall short. That’s not what the Hall has proven to be historically.

The tracker looks at the whole of the Hall, and then goes down to the 33% – that is, it’s kicking out 1/3 of ALL Hall of Famers, and saying once you pass them – your career has a solid argument for enshrinement. As of 2023, this level is 52.2 fWAR.

There are 30-50 active players who will one day make the Hall of Fame – probably over the next 50 years. But the Hall never stops voting, and one you’re in – you’re in. So if there’s a player who is viewed as a fringe player on the outside, rest assured, they will get in. Someday. Eventually. Looking at you, Dick Allen.

This isn’t about feelings. This isn’t about intangibles. The trackers makes no judgment for a player if they’ve made mean tweets about caterpillars, or if their body is 97% testosterone and covered in needle marks, or if they are the cause of Oscar the Grouch’s PTSD diagnosis from his house getting repeatedly smashed every time an opposing pitcher threw them a slider. Nothing here says this guy is guaranteed to make it, or this guy won’t. This is simply a look at the players who are on (or within 2 years of being on) a Hall of Fame pace for their age. There’s no position adjustment – because this isn’t meant to be an exact science. If you ended last year within 2 years of the HOF pace, you’re tracked here. If you fall back to 3 years behind, buh bye.

The tracker updates 10 times a season.

Age
Player Season WAR // Career WAR

Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9

Francisco Alvarez -0.3 // -0.3 – FALLEN OFF TRACKER-
–Feel bad taking him off – he’s supposed to be in the minor leagues! But a 1 for 16 start in this small of a career will put your WAR in the negatives.

Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Vaughn Grissom -0.1 // 0.6
–Getting big league ABs after the Arcia injury – he’s a -2 DRS after 36 innings! Yes, hard to have a smaller sample size than that, and he didn’t have a huge sample size last year, but it was pretty bad at 2B. Sensing a trend. But he can hit.

Riley Greene 0.0 // 0.8
–He has 2 triples already! and hit 4 last year in just 93 games. It’s seems strange for his projection, but especially playing in Detroit, we’re looking at a guy who is going to get double figures in triples at home point in his career. maybe multiple times.

Gunner Henderson 0.1 // 0.9
–16 walks in 132 PAs last year, which is a very good amount, especially for an MLB call up. This year he has 13 in 59 PAs. Insane.

Corbin Carroll 0.4 // 1.8
–Ladies and gentlemen, the new face of the Arizona Diamondbacks has 4 homers and 6 stolen bases through 1/10th of the season. You do the math.

Michael Harris II 0.0 // 4.8 DL
–Rumor is he can start swinging again in the next few days. I’ll hold off as long as I can before I start pointing out any regression statistics since I kept waiting for them last year and it never came.

Julio Rodriguez 0.5 // 5.9
–18 hits on the year. 9 are for extra bases. FOUR are infield hits. Nuts.

Wander Franco 1.2 // 5.9
–Laughing at everyone who gave up on him, and laughing harder at people saying he can’t be this good. This is what everyone told you to expect. But I admit, him “sleeping wrong” getting a stiff neck and going 0-4 gives me JD Drew promise and disappointment flashbacks.

Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8

Roansy Contreras 0.3 // 1.4
–His velocity decline last year caused some concerns – it’s still down. Way down. 1.5 mph under last year’s average. Hmm.

Geraldo Perdomo 0.7 // 1.6
–Perdomo has a 1.042 OPS, if you’re wondering how seriously you should be taking stats right now.

Hunter Greene 0.6 // 2.2
–He’s given up 3 doubles hit less than 90 miles per hour, if you’re wondering how his luck is going. So far his rate stats look great. Reds just gave him a 6 year extension. They know he’s good.

Reid Detmers 0.3 // 2.4
–Detmers has struck out at least 1 batter per inning in all 3 of his starts this year, which is continuing a trend of increased strikeouts he saw as the season went on last year.

Bobby Witt 0.5 // 2.8
–You know SSS and all, but I was concerned about his position change, and his walk rate last year both leading to terrible defense and, well, terrible hitting. One removal of Mike Matheny later, and so far he’s played nothing but SS and his walk rate is 50% higher. A change in mangers might have saved his potential.

Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6

Isaac Parades 0.3 // 2.3
–For a high walk, no batting average guy, Parades has strangely been the opposite this year. He’s swinging a lot more, never ever walking, hitting over .250 – which is stunning for him! and….same results. 117 wRC+ last year, 116 this year.

Andres Munoz 0.1 // 2.3
–Munoz was fine in his 4 appearances, but not lights out. His DL stint seems short, and even though he got a save from day one, Paul Sewald is pitching well in the closers role, and is the most used reliever in the league right now. So Seattle isn’t looking for a change even if Munoz returns to being a premier middle reliever.

Alejandro Kirk 0.0 // 3.8
–For most guys hitting .243, they can’t be mocked for not hitting their weight. For most guys.

Dylan Carlson 0.2 // 5.1
–Well, if you made a bet for your life that Dylan was going to end up in the Hall of Fame, I have news for you. He’s basically a 5th outfielder right now playing behind a guy who is playing out of position. So, the stock…isn’t high.

Spencer Strider 0.6 // 5.4
–I went on and on about how historically amazing Striders 13.81K/9 was in his recap last year. So far this year it’s 15.19.

Andres Gimenez 0.5 // 8.6
–I saw some commentary that Gimenez was lucky, with the evidence being his .354 BABIP last year. So far this year it’s .353. He’s the real deal. He may not get 6 WAR a year, because that’s an absurd level to reach, but he’s one of the most complete players in baseball.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.6 // 9.7
–Walk rate in his awesome 2021: 12.3%
Walk rate in his other 3 years: 8.9,8.2,8.2
Walk rate so far this year: 11.5
Not surprisingly his wRC+ in 2021 was 166, and his wRC+ to start this year is a 166.

Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.0 // 13.6 DL
–His return is imminent. He destroyed minor league pitching. His team needs him. It’s the perfect scenario for a guy who needs a major PR recovery. The only question is has he avoided those dastardly PED causing haircuts.

Juan Soto 0.1// 22.9
–15 games into his age 40 season, after coming back from injury, Ted Williams was hitting .157. That’s the best I could do for a Teddy Ballgame comparison to Soto, who is currently hitting .164. Not at age 40. In the beginning of his prime.

Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1

Ian Anderson 0.0 // 3.8 DL – FALLEN OFF TRACKER-
Tommy John surgery, out for the year, after being assigned to AAA anyway. It’s a low place for Ian Anderson, and I have to wonder if we’ll ever be talking about him again.

Jazz Chisolm Jr. 0.0 // 4.3
–39% k rate, and 57.6 gb%. I’m going to assume this is a SSS issue from a guy returning from a long injury, and not point out that both of those are signs of a troubled back.

Steven Kwan -0.1 // 4.3
–Kwan has made contact with 100% of strikes he’s swung at so far this season. I mean, that’s pretty cool.

Gavin Lux 0.0 // 4.4 DL – FALLEN OFF TRACKER-
–Gavin initially said he planned on coming back this year, which no one else seemed to believe. Lux has since admitted he won’t play this year, and instead will sit around and play video games – that’s not a joke. Glad Lux will get to live the typical life of a 24 year old.

Mike Soroka 0.0 // 4.9 DL
–2 AAA outings with 7.2 innings and 2 ER so far, most importantly, he hasn’t had to be hospitalized. He might actually be close to coming back? Just hoping his achilles is in witness protection, or something.

EmmanuelClase 0.0 5.0
–Really strange to see Clase with an 3.00 ERA, even after 9 innings. Even scarier 2 of those runs came against the Oakland A’s. How does that happen? I mean he’s fine – 4 straight scoreless outings. But the A’s scored off of him? TWICE? I feel betrayed.

Triston McKenzie 0.0 5.3 DL
–Supposed to miss 2 months. He was put on the 60 day DL – so he’ll absolutely miss two months – but I’m a bit fascinated by the news of how quickly he’s recovering from injury, what with his strange alien body.

Trevor Rogers 0.1 // 5.5
–I read a random comment last year that Rogers needed to learn to pitch inside more. Last year Rogers hit 5 batters. So far this year he’s leading the league with 3, so I hope that guy’s happy.

Alek Manoah -0.3 // 5.8
–15 walks in 19 innings. 51 walks all last season. Something is wrong here.

Adley Rutschman 1.0 // 6.3
–His start has been incredible. .481 OBP from your catcher. 16 league leading walks. 4 home runs, for a guy who gets pitched around. .344 average. I’m guessing by the All Star break there won’t be a debate anymore about who is the best C in the game.

Luis Robert 0.7 // 7.3
–4 2B and 5HR after 12 games this year. It took 49 games for him to reach those levels last year.

Bo Bichette 0.9 // 12.7
–Bo led the league in hits in 2021 and 2022, and he’s leading the league in hits this year with 28 (including career #500). Call Vegas now, safe bet.

Ronald Acuna Jr.1.1 // 19.5
–Speaking of leading the league in hits this year, Acuna has been awesome. Last year I told you to ignore small sample sizes and focus on if his sprint speed improved, and if he would start hitting the ball on the ground less. Those would be the signs he was back.

Well, he’s slowed down a bit and it hitting the ball on the ground more.

So let’s assume I’m just 100% completely wrong, and he actually is back…but yeah that’s concerning to me. His success has been built around a crazy reduction in strikeouts. Not sure how sustainable that is.

Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1

Nico Hoerner 0.5 // 6.9
–20 steals last year, 9 already this year. Someone likes those pizza box looking monstrosities.

Ke’Bryan Hayes 0.1 // 7.0
–Boy I spend a lot of words last year talking about how Hayes has no top end velocity, but very high exit velocities nonetheless. Only issue is he just grounds them up the middle. His GB/FB last year was 1.71. It’s 1.04 this year. His hard hit % is 4.5 points higher. As a result, his ISO is a .143, compared to last year’s .101. Thanks for reading, Ke’Bryan.

Daulton Varsho 0.3 // 7.4
–0 XBH hits in 5 home games so far, off-season chatter was all about how he was going to love his new home ball park.

Trent Grisham 0.3 // 7.5
–4 2B and 4HR leading a surprising burst of power. Only 33 xbh all last season.

Luis Arraez 0.9 // 8.0
–Well, I mean, the best pure hitter in baseball, and last year’s AL batting champion is batting .455 in Miami where the Venezuelan fans absolutely went nuts for him in the WBC (Miami has the largest Venezuelan population in the country). If he keeps hitting well, I’m going to be staring at the attendance figures to see what changes happen. Opening day is an outlier in the data, but so far they are averaging 3K more a game. He could become a local legend.

Logan Webb 0.2 // 9.6
–He’s 0-4 with an ERA near 5 to start the season. But the Giants just gave him 90 million dollars. So he’s having a good year.

Gleyber Torres 0.5 // 10.8
Walked 39 times last season. He’s walked 13 this year. 21% walk rate. Like, I don’t know what to do with that.

Austin Riley 0.5 // 10.9
313 total bases in 2021, league leading 325 total bases last year, on pace for 340 this year.

Kyle Tucker,1.1 // 12.2
Tucker has started on fire with a 1.016 OPS. He’s underperforming his xwOBA by almost 50 points, so I guess he’s been unlucky, too.

Julio Urias,0.6 // 13.4
3 wins in 4 starts, including career win #50, with a sub 2 ERA. Being a good pitcher for the Dodgers bodes well for the career totals.

Yordan Alvarez0.7 // 14.7
4 HR on the year, including career HR #100. With how he’s rolling, bet it’s not his last milestone.

Ozzie Albies 0.0 // 15.2
Hit career HR 100 – and maybe cooler, hit career HR 101 off of future HOF Zack Greinke.

Rafael Devers0.7 // 18.8
League leading 7 HR is no surprise. Hits the ball harder than almost anyone. Could be heading toward a monster campaign.

Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2

Sandy Alcantara 0.5 // 13.7
–Last year’s Cy Young winner is sitting with an ERA near 6 after getting bombed by the Phillies following a 3 hit shutout. Throwing a complete game in just his 2nd start suggests new skip Skip (Schumaker) plans to ride his arm to the bitter end, same as last year.

Willy Adames 0.6 // 14.3
–Adames is on pace for 28.5 home runs. In his career his 162 game average is 27. He’s hitting .254. For his career he has a .255 average. So, you know, this is who he is.

Cody Bellinger 0.4 // 17.7
–Well yesterday Cody was hitting .245, and it didn’t seem like the old Cody had a chance of coming back. Then he faced the A’s and went 5-5, and now he’s hitting .310. Everyone who has ever been to college knows that sometimes a slump buster is all you need.

Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1

Tommy Edman, 0.1 // 13.3
–Has 7 hits right handed and 7 hits left handed. Difference is, he’s had 35 more at bats left handed, where he’s hitting .156 as opposed to .700 right handed.

Yoan Moncada, 0.4 // 14.0
–Is last year’s nightmare over? .440 average with 4 doubles and 2 HR in first 6 games. Then he went 1-14 and missed a few games from injury. So maybe not.

Corbin Burnes, 0.1 // 14.4
–For however ugly his early season numbers look, his xERA last year was 3.08 and his xERA this year is 3.08

Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 15.1 DL
–Started throwing from 60 feet, and there’s still a chance he returns this year. So I’ve got to keep coming up with things to say about him. Yay.

German Marquez, 0.2 // 17.5 DL
–2 out of his 3 starts he’s given up 0 home runs and 0 walks. He could be back to his old form. Except…he’s hurt. And should be back soon. But it sort of resets expectations.

Shane Bieber, 0.7 // 19.5
–4 starts, 4 quality starts from one of the most dependable pitchers in the game. Also, 4 wild pitches from a guy who has never had more than 6 in a season. Some catcher needs to be fired.

Shohei Ohtani, 0.9 // 23.8
–Well, his ERA is 0.86, and there’s been no home runs. I mean, he’s hit 2 himself, but he hasn’t given up a home run. And there was the WBC. How does anyone not make a special trip to the ballpark just to see him?

Carlos Correa, 0.0 // 31.3
–He’s hitting .208 and has missed 4 games from injury. The Mets and Giants have small smiles on their faces so far.

Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9

Byron Buxton, 0.2 // 28.9
–Career HR 100, and he’s already managed to play in 15 games this year. I probably would have taken the under.

Matt Olson, 0.9 // 19.0
–11 XBH, a 168 wRC+, so that makes him what, the Braves 6th best hitter?

Cory Seager, 0.5 // 26.7
–He was destroying everything! .359 average! Then he destroyed his hamstring. Most reports say “at least a month” some say 2 months, but that may be because everything is bigger in Texas.

Alex Bregman, 0.3 // 31.3
–While you’re looking at the sub .200 average, I’ll point out his xwOBA is the highest of his career at .374. So thinking things will even out sooner rather than later.

Lindor, Francisco 1.0 // 43.0
–League leading 17 RBI has him 2 away from 600 for his career. Is 600 a milestone? Eh, it is today.

Age 30
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6

Javy Baez, -0.2 // 23.6
–You know, Baez may not run out doubles, or have any idea how many outs there are, but I bet he’s plenty ready to run out his time in Detroit and knows exactly how many years are left.

Trevor Story, 0.0 // 23.7 DL
–He’s started playing catch on his way to eventually being the Red Sox DH, he’s been a league average hitter for 2 years. I’m still not sure this is a positive?

Matt Chapman, 1.1 // 25.1
–He’s hitting .410 with a slugging percentage over 700. If he has a 5 or 6 WAR year, I think you’re looking at a good candidate for eventual “high peak” Hall induction

Aaron Nola, 0.5 // 30.4
–Nola struggled in the postseason, and he’s struggled so far this season with a 5.91 ERA, but he’s still got great control, suppressing homers, and has a FIP over 2 runs better, so I see bad luck, or bad Phils defense and nothing wrong with him.

Trea Turner, 0.6 // 32.2
–Ho hum, hitting .338 with an OBP near .400. When people talk about the best players in the game, if they don’t quickly named Turner, they don’t know what they’re talking about.

Xander Bogaerts, 1.2 // 35.4
–In last year’s peak season his BABIP was a crazy high .362. So far in SD he’s been red hot, and already has 1.2 WAR. His BABIP? .362. Maybe last year wasn’t such an outlier…

Jose Ramirez, 0.6 // 41.8
–Took a strange amount of time for Jose to hit his 1st home run – but it was a 420 foot blast he his 110 mph. So, yeah he’ll be ok.

Bryce Harper, 0.0 // 44.2 DL
–He’s about to take live batting practice, and I’m seeing all sort of stupid click bait articles about how I’ll NEVER BELIEVE WHAT POSITION BRYCE HARPER MIGHT PLAY. It’s 1st base, and I believe it. Everyone believes it you freaking jerks.

Manny Machado, 0.0 // 46.6
–4 extra base hits and 5 double plays so far. What a great way to start this new contract!

Mookie Betts, 0.9 // 51.0
–Mookie just went on paternity leave. Hey, know what was 9 months ago? The All-Star Break! Coincidence, I know.

Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1

Kris Bryant, -0.1// 32.1
–We are 1.1 years into Bryan’s contract with Colorado and just yesterday he hit his first home run in Coors. Woohoo! The home fans must have been thrilled! The Rockies lost 14-3.

Aaron Judge, 1.0 // 37.1
–Judge is on pace to hit 50 home runs this year. Pathetic. Decline years can be so sad to watch.

Christian Yelich, 0.5 // 37.2
–All you really need to know is that after his 2 year fade from his MVP years, Yelich has started this year hitting even fewer fly balls, and has an even lower ISO. He’s been flat lining a while, just waiting for a doctor to call it.

Mike Trout, 0.8 // 83.0
–Hit his 300th career double. So I guess maybe the last doubter might think he’s pretty good.

Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2

J.T. Realmuto, 0.1 // 29.8
–1 walk and 17 strikeouts to start the year. I don’t for a second think he’s fallen off a cliff as many catchers do at this age – he was just too good last year. But it was a lost start to the season, that’s for sure.

Gerrit Cole, 1.2 // 39.9
–4 and 0 to start the season 0.95 ERA 0 home runs given up. Complete game shutout. 32 Ks in 28 innings. Year by year slowly people are starting to realize he is what a modern starting pitcher Hall of Famer looks like.

Nolan Arenado, 0.4 // 46.1
–300th career home run – almost has caught new Hall of Famer Scott Rolen (already passed him in Gold Gloves).

Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0

Madison Bumgarner, -0.2 // 32.6
7.90 ERA to start the season and there’s still a year left after this. The D-Backs are improving and want to compete – when is it time just to cut bait here?

George Springer, 0.0 // 33.0
–Springer is only hitting .232, ok, but he was 5-6 on opening day. How is he only hitting .232?

Jason Heyward, 0.2 // 33.5
–Uh, alright. Heyward has 3 home runs, and had another one robbed by Cody Bellinger. He hit 1 home run last year. And yeah, he’s batting below .200, but I didn’t even expect him to still be playing, so he’s far surpassed my wildest expectations for him.

Anthony Rendon, 0.0 // 34.2
–I assume Rendon would like to hit a home run, but so far he has hit 0 (only 1 double!) Of course he had a fan he tried to hit too, and missed wildly, so guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

Anthony Rizzo, 0.8 // 35.8
–Starting out the year surprisingly sizzling, he’s closing in on 1,500 hits and 300 home runs. Most importantly if he keeps getting numbers, he can keep getting contracts for his Hall chase.

Giancarlo Stanton, 0.4 // 42.9 DL
–You know, people seem to be upset at Stanton getting hurt because he sat and watched a double instead of running it out. To me, I think it’s smart to get his first injury out of the way early, so he has time to get hurt again before the stretch run.

Jose Altuve, 0.0 // 48.5
–Altuve may be back before June, is the rumor now. Daniel Bard, who threw the pitch that injured him, also may be activated soon. I don’t know who to root for harder.

Freddie Freeman, 0.2 // 50.6
–After 17 games Freeman is hitting .328 with 3 homers. After 17 games last year he was hitting .328 with 3 homers. Set your clock by him.

Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3

Stephen Strasburg, 0.0 // 36.6 DL
–Stras isn’t doing baseball activities at all. I spent last weekend tossing a plastic baseball with the 2 year old nephew of a major leaguer, so in that sense I am far closer to taking the mound than Strasburg is.

Yasmani Grandal, 0.3 // 37.8
–At least he’s hitting again, but he’s given up 11 steals in 12 games, and hasn’t thrown out over 20% of runners in 3 years. He’s gonna have to hit a lot more to make that ok.

Chris Sale, -0.2 // 45.4 DL
He’s given up 5 home runs and has an ERA north of 11. So far Boston fans are all offering to let Sale borrow their bikes.

Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4

Jacob Degrom, 0.9 // 42.0 DL
–Ahh yes, an insane 1.30 WHIP through his 1st 4 starts – and now he’s on the DL. This tug of war between being the most effective pitcher in history, and being able to throw a baseball at all will define his career in Texas, and his Hall of Fame case.

Paul Goldschmidt, 0.7 // 54.7
–Goldy hit .317 with a .404 OBP in his MVP year last year, so far this year he’s at .322 and .458.

Clayton Kershaw, 1.1 // 73.5
–Kershaw with win number 200! OK, so he has 199, and starts his next game in an hour, but I’m betting by the time you read this, he has #200. And yes, 200 is pretty easily the modern 300, and it’s quickly dropping.

Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1

Andrew McCutchen, 0.6 // 51.4
–Fountain of youth! 0.3 WAR last year, 0.6 WAR already this year, McCutchen sits just short of several major milestones that would give his case a big boost – 36 hits to 2,000 and 10 to 300. If this is his last year – and let’s hope it’s not – he has to get there to have a chance some day.

Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3

Josh Donaldson, -0.1 // 46.1
–Donaldson needed a good year to revive his career and his Hall case. Instead he’s started hitting .125, and went to the DL with a hurt hamstring, so…

Evan Longoria, 0.4 // 54.9
–Longoria is also starting hot, as he has the last 3 years – with an OPS of .926 and 2 home runs. But he is only playing part time and needs 109 hits to make 2,000. He’s on pace to get 72 more. So, uh, don’t retire man.

Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2

Max Scherzer, 0.0 // 70.3
–Finally looked like himself – 5 shutout innings – and promptly left the game with injury. Between he and Verlander, Blood Pressure meds are going to spike like crazy in New York.

Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0

Joey Votto, 0.0 // 57.9 DL
–Votto ended rehab and then…nothing. Going back to Cin to keep getting healthy. Some speculation he’s just done. If so, what a sad way to go.

Zack Greinke, 0.3 // 65.8
–He is 2 wins away from 225. His first game he gave up 2 runs in 5.1. His 2nd game he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. The Royals were shut out in both. Thanks a lot, KC.

Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5

Miguel Cabrera, -0.1 // 65.5
–As Detroit says goodbye to the shell of Miguel Cabrera, who hasn’t homered yet this year, remember that his sad .615 OPS is still well above what was to be the future of Tigers (Torkelson .542, Baez .504).

Justin Verlander, 0.0 // 78.1
–Injured to start the year, he’s supposed to be back soon. Verlander wants to pitch to 45, and if he’s healthy, he has a chance to be the last person we see for at least a generation to win 300 games. So far, it ain’t going well.

Pujols, Albert – MLB HOF Tracker

AGE 42 Tracked Career 51.8 WAR – 52.3 WAR

Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 0.2 WAR

Average Hall of Famer Year 0.2 WAR

Pujols, Albert

2022: 1.8 WAR Career: 88.8 WAR

Yeah, so let’s not talk about the Hall of Fame case of the guy that just hit his 700th home run. Albert Pujols is in. The only question is one of 100% or not. You can count me on the “not” side. There are just too many strange wacko voters out there. There are voters who might strategically not vote for him because of the 10-player limit – and of course, there’s the morality stance on every player. Albert was publicly accused of taking roids by Jack Clark – a stance that got him fired from his radio gig when Albert threatened to sue. Albert also had an “age” drama that happened in his career, where he was accused of being older than he was, which if true probably cost the Angels a hefty amount of money. Finally, Albert happened to file for divorce from his wife right as she was having surgery for a brain tumor. The divorce has been amicable so far as public statements go, though there has been some low-level spousal support in court drama as of late.

Taken in order for my quick opinions:

  1. If Albert, or any player, ever took steroids, there’s no chance anyone involved with them would gab to crazy Jack Clark. I love Jack Clark. But the dude is crazy.
  2. Albert is almost assuredly 2 years older than he claimed based upon a story from…Albert Pujols. This isn’t the time for that.
  3. Personal morality issues aren’t my cup of tea. But it seems like no one else thinks that way anymore.

All of that adds up to probably a few not checked boxes. No matter. He’s going into the Hall of Fame. Let’s instead, talk about something else. Albert’s last season wasn’t nearly appreciated enough. By anyone. By you. By Me. No one. It’s like appreciating a mother’s love enough. There is no chance we could fill that canyon. That season simply doesn’t happen for a 42-year-old position player (or a 44-year-old position player if you will.)

Let’s instead try to relive the magic of last season as much as we can.

March 28, 2022 – Albert Pujols resigns with the Cardinals, not long after the DH is implemented in the league (which is exactly how Satan works as a temptress).

Albert sits 21 home runs short of 700. He’d only hit 21 home runs since 2017, that was 23 in 2018 in 491 at-bats. Now he’s 3 years older and labeled as a part-time DH to face lefties. 21 seems an impossible task.

An 0-5 opening day, followed by two days on the bench, drives this point home.

Then on April 12th, Albert gets the start against Kansas City, the city he grew up in. He tallies 3 hits including home run number 680.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=503314ce-771b-4324-bf2f-5b22958a65be

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4d4bffbc-a48f-463a-b7a8-5587879f9478

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=170ab92a-625a-4c45-8a0c-931f9efa5703

 Albert earns the start the next day and gets this single – a single he earned, but…also arguably was a gift all said and done.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e94b4bbd-35ff-4b39-99d2-0c48d4046cf7

 After 2 more days off he hits a 426-foot 3-run homer to tie the game. His last home run for more than a month

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=81abb980-6b3b-4eea-a0a3-360fb5acbdd3

 The next game he would hit his only double of the month…if you could call it a double. Albert was beginning his slide.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=790809ef-bc0c-4ce6-ab09-e95657ac0085

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=71ca90e0-7c96-41d7-920e-3a1a8130b9eb

 It would be 10 days and 10 hitless at-bats before Albert got a seeing-eye single

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=41715ac8-c810-45db-88b5-c8685b8ab66a

 Albert started May ripping this RBI single, his last hit for 2 weeks

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=84d98999-3d8c-4ba3-8fe2-f5d87fcbe730

 It was 9 hitless at-bats, and 6 games riding the pine before Albert got his next hit. His average down to .209 he picked up 2 walks and 2 hits including a double off of Carlos Rodon, because…baseball.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=70cfc94d-93a6-4440-8c4f-d759f6d991b8

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=85f76e88-8aaf-4b71-b040-bab981d74673

 After 2 more days off, Albert is lucky enough to get a start against MAX SCHERZER. And somehow, Albert gets 2 hits off of him too.

 The 2nd hit was career hit 3,314, which according to the official record books puts him in 10th all-time for hits. It’s crap, really. The official record books aren’t comprehensive. But hey, it happened.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2c6defd3-300d-4508-8f69-43401dcc2699

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=68324746-b9bc-472c-90d7-b37346cbe116

 MOST IMPORTANTLY

 Albert stole a base off Max Scherzer. #117 for his career, and the final stolen base he would ever record.

https://www.mlb.com/video/albert-pujols-steals-2nd-base?q=pujols%20stolen%20base&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

 An 0-12 stretch came up, sending Albert to a .210 average before Albert connected with #682 and #683, his first multi-homer game of the season. Granted the 2nd homer was off a position player, but at that point in the year, with only 4 home runs, you’d take it.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4f313797-206a-449f-86e7-e60fa0b1f571

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2bf0e2b1-77bc-48e2-98d2-96a34e1fc036

 Those were Albert’s last home runs in May…and June.

 He spent the rest of his time occasionally rocketing singles here and there but mostly making lots and lots of outs.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e8323b51-ae01-4484-a53e-35efb9c135e0

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3e2c7898-bf91-404a-a1f8-42329a3d5758

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4d3f38b1-28f4-4fa0-877d-7550306951d1

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9054bb11-af53-468c-8f6c-e4dab6f5a33f

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=1b91ad77-c685-4f55-a68a-3678b2d37d78

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=350dae54-d87d-413e-a01f-39a973d4563e

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2e89b63d-7741-492d-af7a-f2fa1afd4fdc

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e9ea3303-dd27-4d0b-b84b-ebb5d1d455de

 At this point, Albert was hitting .189. His OPS was .601. The Cardinals were in a tight playoff race. It was an open discussion among fans, and apparently internally for Albert himself if he should just retire.

 HAD he retired the entire world would have agreed that he was done. Long done. His final home run would have been off of a Pirates position player.

 But then, something clicked. He started off with 2 hits, including a double against Max Fried.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=ce5bb41e-3e00-4efd-966c-bc44ae115782

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=964a0c61-d998-4d33-9f2b-7db3f7a0ef9f

 Then something really clicked. On July 10th he got 3 hits including home run #684. The homer was 105 mph off the bat – the softest of his 3 safeties.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=86741285-97d9-4376-8618-5248e62b0cb6

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=bc361466-9809-40e4-b7b2-3c97bac5304a

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2e1faaaa-1729-4940-83c5-2a57887043d2

 While Albert was hot, he played. He only missed 9 games the rest of the season.

 The next day, Albert became 3rd all-time in XBH with a double off the top of the wall off of Aaron Nola

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2e1faaaa-1729-4940-83c5-2a57887043d2

 And then the next day came #685, his 6th of the year

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7313ff6b-87db-4a46-82bc-661d561cace9

 Albert hit two more singles before the break

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=0a3ee849-2206-4674-853b-ced17baa8345

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=23ee35ee-8689-4d63-9e7d-f2c9fe795664

 He finished the 1st half with a .676 OPS. His 2nd half OPS would be 1.103.

 Albert was named to the All-Star game in an honorary fashion, and would be invited to the home run derby as well:

 It was considered a shocking upset when Albert beat Kyle Schwarber in the HR derby.

 He would then go on to hit more HR than Schwarber in the 2nd half of the season.

 His 2nd half started with a 2 hit game against the Reds, absolute scorchers:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=70bd7f10-8e69-4186-985a-d7984e56d37a

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=80214d3b-7f4e-4839-ac0e-c12be2763801

 The next day, a pinch-hit single:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3f228d06-515a-4839-b52f-5ae4c953d941

 Then off to Toronto, where he started 2 games at 1st because both Arenado and Goldschmidt were not allowed to play due to vaccine requirements. Albert got on base 5 times in the series hitting in the middle of the order, with 4 hits, a double, and home run number 686 (439 feet), leading to a 2 game split

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=eebf4149-bce8-46cd-b445-3c18e8620262

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=151f36a3-7180-422d-897e-ba1545d515c5

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=29231e13-2999-43a2-9c97-fdb2d86f7f0f

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d67af9bc-5f5f-4afd-9e25-15c939701230

 The magic looked over, as he endured an 0-9 stretch, but nothing makes a bat come alive like Coors, where he picked up a 4-hit day with #687

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=60f1b82e-caf0-4ea3-a7ea-1cfce046e09c

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=0a05af92-8f0d-4306-89f3-994c665eade0

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=376a3996-ab3a-442f-9d95-48fbf381391a

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=77f26b85-d707-4858-9187-83efcac75979

 Next came a series against Milwaukee, where he picked up a single in game 1 – and a 2 homer game in game 3. The 2nd of which went 443 feet. He was now up to 689.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4c3e6cb2-6d61-42be-8fb2-e290c0e6d3a1

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e0f0c03b-1cf6-4507-a19f-2f5e446d2d94

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c67f20ad-d158-4dcb-b93b-a842e9117ff5

 Man, I love this one. Next was a series against the Rockies at home. He played 6 innings of game one and got a single. He sat game two. He sat game 3 as well, except…well with the bases loaded they couldn’t help but pinch-hit Albert. #690 was a pinch-hit grand slam. He stayed in and added another RBI hit before the day was over. A 5 RBI day off the bench.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=65a99045-401e-49d0-8f3f-74bddeecce01

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=fb7eb606-0e29-4fa7-bc74-a9ff1226c959

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=485d56c8-8f9b-4357-ad92-f6620db2d81e

 This was followed by absolutely destroying Madison Bumgarner with a multi-homer game (691 & 692) – and 2 other hits. And of course, a pinch-hit single the next day.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=8003c31c-fde1-46cd-8e65-9f2122b97ce8

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=912f6cc2-0dd3-4b9f-a0a1-43377b36f980

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=d9bbe39f-1182-40ac-8f4f-53ace449f309

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2e555e09-f1b6-4763-bbfa-a6de4d7b3110

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=86844662-90a5-4427-bddd-979d5e454714

 You’ll notice at the end of the last home run, the announcer says “the chase is on” for 700 home runs. He’s 8 away. Folks, this is late August by this point. Albert is 42. He finished the 1st half with 6 home runs, and he’s retiring at the end of the year. Again and again, the question was would he come back to hit 700?

 You see, most of the milestones are just waiting for them to happen. You know they WILL happen, you just want to see it when it happens.

 It was going to be very hard for Albert to pass A-Rod at 696, let alone hit 700. You weren’t tuning in with hopes of catching the night it happens, you were tuning in wondering if it would ever happen at all.

 I’ll call back to this paragraph in a few minutes.

 Albert then took his final trip to Wrigley Field, the home of the Cardinals’ enemy for all those prime years. He ended up getting 4 more hits in Wrigley – 3 for extra bases, and of course one of those was another homer. 693.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=73e05827-3362-4de2-b370-616cdf6e660f

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=dc529434-9f25-4cf5-a4cd-9edae0470b9b

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=eb676d13-5f75-4e50-b701-4ce85ff0dccb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=196b73f6-1a9e-43f7-9731-89d4f044fb3f

 He only picked up one hit against Atlanta – but off of freaking Spencer Strider – before going 2-4 against the Reds with #694

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=93a71eab-432f-4fb3-8f87-9855c91c0c7c

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=cbe089a5-f87d-4d53-b12a-10f06a9c80e0

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=28286996-1c53-44cb-b366-f295595ae6d8

 Albert would go only 2 for his next 24 – a slide happening. Nothing assured. Though one of those 2 would be a go-ahead pinch-hit home run in his last at-bat against the Cubs.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2995be85-240a-4078-87d4-3fffa8b8b4ca

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=092abb2c-0893-4cb0-b0f6-c1253d4c9c3c

 Let’s not forget, when things are clicking, they are clicking. Here are 3 defensive plays from this time

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a13bdaa3-e06b-40ca-ba84-6336c4b03d24

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=21f5b6d3-8555-4e74-ace9-dc61ed0091ea

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=50f6f241-7bec-4420-a224-11bc17ca8614

 And then Albert’s 2-day assault on the Pirates. 4 hits, a double, and 2 home runs to tie and pass Alex Rodriguez

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=da9ac81c-313e-4f9c-9f4f-60a338e4f9a9

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=cce064c4-95dd-4817-a13b-787cd0e7f5c0

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=210dde4a-35b1-4f7f-aa9f-416994f5dbb4

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=bda5e21b-8c02-4ee2-bd6c-d6b443bb648a

 Milwaukee would escape with only a single and a double, before Albert hit 698 against the Reds on September 16th:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=702f65ba-ffd3-42db-9207-73f4441ed95c

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=7b0ea6d7-c18f-4963-8980-ed26ee9be96e

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=4e14a572-8e42-49ce-a6b5-371ba126366d

 6 more games would go by in which he would hit but 4 singles – however the 3rd was breaking up a no-hitter in the 7th inning. Can’t beat Albert.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=8d323958-c8f2-4e19-9ebf-844fb5004e3f

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=88973795-0fe1-48dc-81fa-e83807b3ab41

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=417d57c4-9e3a-4b49-b6d9-bcacf195ba07

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3edb2969-0c60-4c88-86e2-e8fdf857d4a2

 It’s September 23rd. There are 11 games left in Albert’s career. He has 698 career home runs. Not hitting 1 home run wouldn’t be shocking at all, let alone 2. We’re talking about a 42-year-old winding down his final weeks. Nolan Arenado sat on 298 home runs since September 14th. He would only hit 1 more the rest of the way.

 When Stan Musial hit his 3,000th hit, it was in Wrigley, it was a pinch-hit double. He was sitting out that day because they wanted him to get 3,000 hits in front of the home crowd. When Hank Aaron was going for 715, there was tremendous pressure and commissioner intervention to make sure he wasn’t going to get benched on the road every single game just to let him do it at home.

 Albert, as I said above, didn’t have that option. This was it. It didn’t have to happen at all. It shouldn’t have happened at all. But it did, in Los Angeles, the city he left the Cardinals for. The team that signed him after the Angels dumped him and revived his career. He put on a show.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=6e234040-239a-4ba0-8613-515f4e5086ba

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=168574d1-958e-475d-bef4-de751c75b095

 700 home runs. And his magic wasn’t done.

 Heck, here’s a single against Clayton Kershaw. That’s always worth appreciating.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=6c2d3032-d5b1-4646-8afc-8efcaca99772

 Then on 9/30, he goes to Big Mac Land for the home crowd to see 701

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2e0c9975-3f25-4929-9ef4-5828631aabb2

 The next day he rips a 2 RBI single

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=f6daf009-bfd1-4f84-b95a-b2495ac5a722

 And in his final home game in St. Louis, Albert is given 2 at-bats. He hits a double, and then in his final at-bat, he hits 702.

 His last home run in St. Louis tied the game. It tied Babe Ruth in career RBI. Incredible.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=5231f75a-f4cf-44e8-9a2b-d7fc464b4a8c

 Then, in PNC Park for the last time, Albert hits his final career HR. 703 for his career. And passes Babe Ruth in RBI.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a6bbfc50-591c-40d9-860e-66c76bfeb7c0

 Finally, why not. He’s given some warm-up at-bats before the playoffs and got his last career hit, number 3,384. It’s a 2 run single, giving him 2,218 career RBI.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=36aa70b4-19ae-4b5a-8799-a1b234f43738

 The Cardinals would fall to the Phillies in the playoffs, but in his last major league game, he would get a single.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=442df92f-c311-40ac-95e0-f4f7bed41e55

 And then later on in that game, Albert would get his final at-bat. And he would rip it for a single too.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=37da1e9e-3ec2-44c9-8cc8-21838b33bcca

 When you get to Albert Pujols levels, you see careers that stand alone. It’s not inner circle. It’s candidates for baseball’s Mount Rushmore. It’s the very few players who people will say, forget all of the Hall of Famers. This was the best player I ever saw out of any of them. Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Bonds, Pujols, and very few others have reached such a legendary status.

 But through age and a long decline his star power faded. The memories dimmed. He looked great on a stat sheet. His milestones were fun to see – but sad to see the limping that often got him there.

 2022 was a farewell and looked to be a farewell to the shell of who he once was. You saw it every time his hobbled feet tried to run a single step. His body was giving out all around him. He came to St. Louis to tip his cap.

 Instead, his last few months were spent giving baseball fans a true time machine. Thrill after thrill. Amazing moment after amazing moment.

 As for me, my Grandma was staying at my house in early October. She’s elderly, in her mid-80s, and her house had just been completely destroyed in a Hurricane. She was homeless and possession-less. Her husband of almost 60 years had passed the year before. And I sat with her on my couch while her depression faded long enough to watch Albert hit his last home runs.

While she escaped reality for a few minutes to express her disbelief and amazement at what he was doing, she went on to tell stories about listening to the St. Louis Browns on the radio, and sending in all the coins she could find when she saw an ad in the paper to receive a picture of Harry Caray, so she could see what he looked like (and how disappointed she was as a teenage girl when she found out). 

We talked baseball, me and my eighty-five-year-old grandma, for about an hour on that last day she stayed at my house. The next day, family helped move her back to the mid-west, a place far enough away that I might never see her again. But that memory of that last day, in the midst of all that pain, man. I love baseball.

Thanks, Albert.

Verlander, Justin – MLB HOF Tracker

AGE 39 Tracked Career 49.6 WAR – 51.2 WAR

Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 0.7 WAR

Average Hall of Famer Year 0.9 WAR

Verlander, Justin

2022: 6.1 WAR Career: 78.1 WAR

Well all Justin Verlander did last year was to come back after making a total of 1 start over the previous 2 years and post an 18-4 record with a 1.75 ERA and 6.1 WAR at the age of 39.

So he’s good. In fact, he’s so good it’s boring to discuss his candidacy. 244-133 with a 3.26 career ERA, and 3,198 career strikeouts. 3 Cy Youngs. 2 World Series rings. I mean, I could talk about the foundations of his care forever. He’s another guaranteed 1st ballot lock.

So THAT’s not interesting. Did you really come here to see if I could make a compelling case for Justin Verlander to make the Hall of Fame? He was able to convince Kate Upton to have continuous sex with him for over a decade, do you think he’s going to struggle to get 75% of pudgy baseball writers to check a box next to his name one single time?

So yeah, he’s a modern-day Joe Dimaggio in that his incredible baseball skills pale in comparison to what every guy is actually jealous of him for.

No, what’s more interesting to think about – uh, as far as baseball goes – is the fact that Justin Verlander has said before that he wants to pitch until he is 45 years old. This means Justin Verlander might win 300 games.

There is something baseball fans do all of the time that’s absolutely foolish and natural. We wonder if we’ve seen the last of a certain type of player just because the game seems to be evolving away from them. .400 batting averages and 300 innings and so on and so forth are mythical numbers that will never be approached again. The thing is, forever is a very, very long time. And baseball thinkers are…well they aren’t known for their perspective. The simple fact of the matter is the game ebbs and flows, and who knows what crazy rules 2091 commissioner Robfred Maniford XXII is going to think. Yes, the baseball complete game record might be broken one day, when some evil commissioner gives the fans what they really want: 2 inning games that are allowed to end in ties. One out per inning.

Wins are especially susceptible to coming back in the future because the way they are awarded is so spectacularly dumb. The fact that the rules allow the official scorer to award a win to the best pitcher when the starting pitcher hasn’t earned it under traditional requirements, and the fact that the official scorer 99.9% of the time awards it to some middle reliever that happened to be on the mound when their team took the lead – no matter how that pitcher actually did – is just dumb tradition of the worst kind. It wouldn’t shock me if in the next 50 years when we’re seeing starters throw 4 and 5 shutout innings and not get a win on the norm, and middle relievers are often getting the lead, that this is done away with and it’s simply awarded to the pitcher who contributed the most to the win. Wins losing their relevancy is in fact a bad thing for a sport that relies on its ties to the past and the big numbers that come with it.

So I don’t think Verlander is the last to 300 even if he makes it, but he may be the last for a very long time (or a very short time if Scherzer decides to pitch forever himself – he’s not drastically off of Verlander’s pace).

But what are Verlander’s chances of reaching 300? At a glance looking at a 40-year-old pitcher still 56 wins away, you’d instantly say those chances are zero. It really helps his case that he won 18 games last year and is performing at peak levels. It doesn’t help his case that thanks to injuries those 18 wins are most of the 19 wins he’s been able to compile over the last 3 seasons. Really, lately, he’s averaging 6 wins a year if you think about it.

And you should. Because he is old. And the physical demands of his job are great.

10 pitchers in baseball history have won 56 games or more starting with their age 40 season. Phil Niekro won 121 games thanks to his knuckler, which is just insane.

If you take out knuckleball pitchers (and it’s sort of ridiculous that we do, why don’t more pitchers attempt to extend their careers with the number one pitch known to extend careers? Please don’t answer me with one of those “that wouldn’t work today” things unimaginative people always say. Please just don’t talk to me ever again if that’s the way your brain has been warped.)

Here are the pitchers you might remember that won 56+ games at age 40 and beyond:

Jamie Moyer – 105

Bartolo Colon – 76

Randy Johnson – 73

Nolan Ryan – 71

Roger Clemens – 61

That’s actually quite a few from recent times. Pretty amazing that of the 10 in all of baseball history, 6 have retired in the last 30 years (Charlie Hough being the missing name from the list). In an era where wins are fading, geriatric wins are on the rise.

You have to think that’s a sign for optimism. More so, while some of these pitchers pitched beyond their age 45 seasons, all of them hit that 56-win mark pretty easily by their age 45 season. Clemens was retiring 10 times a year at that point and called it quits completely at 44 and still made it.

Yes, for pure comp’s sake, it’s hard to have soft-tossing lefty Moyer on this list, and likely Verlander doesn’t have two entirely separate families to feel like Bartolo. I don’t expect anyone to misremember that Clemens was chemically aided in his older years. And the era Randy Johnson pitched in was already far different than Verlander’s, let alone when Nolan Ryan pitched 875 innings in the first 4 years of his 40s – and started fading after that, pitching ‘only’ 173 innings at 44 years old. Last year, Verlander made it 175 innings if you want a quick example of how times change.

You don’t need me to tell you about his metrics. He wasn’t an ace last year by accident, and his numbers coming off of two missed seasons are miraculous. Normally you’d say a pitcher will be stronger and more accurate in their 2nd season off of injury, but it would be nearly impossible for Verlander to actually get any better.

He also has a 2-year deal with the Mets (year 3 a vesting option). The Mets have committed roughly 9 trillion dollars towards winning everything possible. Everything. I have them going all the way in the Final 4. Wins are not going to be in short supply.

What I’m saying is his chances are still low – they have to be low. At this age, there are a million factors that can halt a career suddenly or slowly – but for those low chances of his are awfully damn high. And I suspect he’ll be the last of his breed for a while. The chase should be exciting.

I don’t even think injury or aged ineffectiveness are the biggest things working against him. I think that there are times in even the biggest Alpha-Male’s life when they sometimes are just feeling down and need support and want to go home into the loving arms of a woman who cares enough that she’s determined to raise his spirits in any way imaginable. No man has more incentive to give up a 3 run home run and put on a sad frowny face than Justin Verlander. If you’re going to ask me what would be better than winning 300 games, well, I can think of a few things.

3 of his final 6 starts Verlander gave up 0 hits. Insane. Here’s the last of these against Philadelphia – the team they’d beat in the World Series, where he struck out 10 Phillies in 5 innings in a tune-up start for the playoffs. Yikes.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=a88417f6-864d-4761-8815-228f64a47c96

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b23d60d1-a3f3-4df5-823d-c0715f23e526

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b2dbf09a-3c1f-4b5b-ab7d-0520626d0562

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c22a96a3-ff2a-45e4-964a-7212089d3c0d

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=853f9f1c-1c2a-494d-948a-6fd0cf0485d6

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=6da699d6-acfd-42d2-8dc8-25f8a9caf524

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=30608b5f-d777-4ffe-9447-9397de74e13b

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=fc4aa309-d26e-44d4-81c5-e1949dd43d0c

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=2e33f91a-81be-4549-aeb8-ef9153704d2d

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Cabrera, Miguel – MLB HOF Tracker

AGE 39 Tracked Career 49.6 WAR – 51.2 WAR

Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 0.7 WAR

Average Hall of Famer Year 0.9 WAR

Cabrera, Miguel

2022: -1.5 WAR Career: 68.6 WAR

You’ll forgive me in advance if this isn’t a glowing rundown of Miguel Cabrera‘s Hall of Fame case. That’s not what interests me about him. Miguel is a 3,000 500 home run hitter who has the only triple crown in most baseball fans’ lifetimes. Cabrera is going into the Hall of Fame. It’s going to be on the first ballot. It’s something that’s been decided for some time, and it’s really just not that interesting of a discussion frankly.

Now Cabrera is a human, and there’s at least a 6 year time period before he gets his chance to be voted in, and thus anything could happen. He could get busted for PEDs, yes. He does have domestic suspicions in his past. He has alcoholism. He has children with a mistress whom he hasn’t fully supported financially before. There’s no telling how society is going to turn before 2030, and he might end up with that version of the Hall of Fame canceled before it’s all said and done. That’s the least fun cloud that hangs over all Hall of Fame cases in this day and age. There are a lot of people who don’t want it to be the Hall of Scummy Players That Were Still Really Good – and I respect that to a degree. I also think that by the time virtually any person reaches their 40s, they’ve made multiple decisions in their lives that when condensed down to a few paragraphs or allegations, or merely suspicions, are going to fall short in the eyes of modern society.

There’s actually an interesting tangent here, about how the thinking about the Hall of Fame has changed from a Baseball history lesson into a Career Achievement Award (I prefer it be a mixture of both, truth be told). At the current moment in time, you can be kept out of the Hall of Fame for the wrong tweet, or rubbing the wrong kind of cream on your knees, but if you aren’t aware, there was a catcher in the 1800s who played just 4 years before his last game at age 27. He wasn’t very good, at least not by modern statistical analysis (Many at the time swore him to be one of the best defensive catchers in the game). His career OPS+ was 72. He retired with a career WAR of -1. After his career, he wasn’t some sort of great hero. He wasn’t a Senator or an ambassador outside of baseball. Inside baseball he was nothing either. He never became a pioneer, or a great manager, or some sort of executive, indeed his last game of baseball was his last involvement with baseball until his death.

But indeed in 1937, the first-year voters could explicitly vote on 1800s players, 38 years after his last game, he received 2 votes for the Hall of Fame (and 1 vote each of the next two elections).

Whereas Pud Galvin, baseball’s first 300-game winner who WOULD become a Hall of Famer in the 1960s never got a single vote in any of those years for enshrinement.

Pud had died in 1902, long before any thoughts of Baseball having a museum of immortality, and was long out of the voter’s minds, most of whom probably had no idea who he was all those decades later.

But this guy actually died before Galvin, in January 1900. It was because of his death that he actually got those Hall votes. For his name was Marty Bergen. And Marty became infamous for slitting his own throat, and just before that, murdering his wife and daughters with an ax. The grisly details became a media sensation for the time, and there were at least a few Hall voters who felt the incident was integral to telling the story of the game.

90 years ago slaughtering your family was good for a few Hall votes. These days, you can’t even be accused of sexually harassing a special needs batboy without losing Hall support. How soft we’ve gotten.

So yeah, if Miguel isn’t going to make it, it’s going to take some sad allegations coming out in public to make it happen. It’s the same asterisk that every player has while waiting their turn. And, because those players happen to be human, it’s one that must be taken into account every single time.

But that unpleasant tangent aside, it’s time for another unpleasant discussion that I think Cabrera is a model of: Which is, when should a player step aside?

Cabrera has announced 2023 is his final season. Just by some extremely strange coincidence that can’t possibly be related in any way, it also happens to be the last guaranteed year of Miguel’s contract. Oh, and it’s the highest-paying year of his career, where he’ll be making 32 million dollars. I know finances are usually a private affair, but I’ll be candid in admitting that it is more than double what I currently make and that if I was offered 32 million dollars to play baseball, I’d probably keep doing it too. I wouldn’t kill for that kind of money, but I might help Bergen pick out his ax.

Technically Cabrera could have 2 more years vested into his contract, where he’d make 30 million dollars annually. In order to get those years, he’d have to finish top 10 in the MVP voting this year (and then again the next).

Cabrera is 6 full seasons removed from the last time he finished in the top 10 in MVP voting, oh and he’s now pretty easily one of the worst players in baseball, so it’s pretty easy to rule against that happening.

Let me emphasize that worst players in baseball thing. Cabrera can stand at 1B, he can stand at DH, and he can hit occasional singles. And that’s it. Since 2017 Miguel has been worth -2.4 WAR and has made 148 million dollars doing it.

Cabrera’s ISO last year was .063

Juan Pierre‘s career ISO was .066

We don’t have sprint speeds from Pierre’s day, but I think it’s safe to say Cabrera is a hair slower than him, and a tad worse at defense, too.

Cabrera’s injuries prevented him from getting enough plate appearances to qualify, but he would have had the 2nd worst ISO in baseball, ahead of only Miles Straw.

It’s hard to emphasize just how little power Cabrera – Who will go down as one of the best power hitters of all time – really had last year.

Let’s improve his ISO by 50%. We’re giving him 50% more power here. That’s a .095 ISO. Yes, we’re even rounding up for him. That would have tied him for the 7th lowest ISO in baseball last year.

Put in laypersons terms, the dude had 397 at-bats and totaled 10 doubles and 5 home runs in that time.

6 of those doubles and 3 of those home runs he had in the first 35 games of the season, on May 22. He played 77 games the rest of the way – virtually a full half a season – and hit 4 doubles and 2 home runs.

It should go without saying, but he wasn’t getting singles or walks at this time either. Here’s his line over the 2nd half: .171/.258/.243.

Go ahead and make a “that’s pretty good for a Tiger” joke – I won’t stop you.

This doesn’t matter a bit to me. Not a bit. Cabrera was named an All-Star last year by the commissioner, in a new sort of career honor that throws production out the window and puts legends on the national stage to be honored and for the game to show off. I think this is smart. And Cabrera is certainly worthy.

But it poses the question of whether he should have retired.

I’m not going to leave anyone in suspense. I’ve said it multiple times, and I’ll say it again: No. If a person wants to play baseball, they should fight to play baseball. And if a team is going to give them a roster spot, and tens of millions of dollars, that’s their every right to do so.

What I’d ask thinking people to do, though, is when thinking of the Hall of Fame, add up the positives. Don’t subtract the negatives. There isn’t a way to play himself out of the Hall of Fame. Writers could get together and decide to attack Detroit by giving him MVP votes and two more years of 30 million dollars of Tiger’s payroll. Besides being hilarious, it doesn’t matter how bad Cabrera would play, it doesn’t matter how low his career average would fall, he’s had enough highs that he’s a Hall of Famer.

That’s the methodology that one should use. They should look at Cabrera and understand the context of his career. You’re not voting for a 68-WAR guy – who could be a 66-WAR guy before the end of this year. You’re voting for the 70+ monster that he was.

I’m glad Cabrera kept playing. I don’t think he would have retired at the end of 2021 had his contract run out, because of the 3,000-hit pursuit. He probably would have gotten a lesser one-year deal from Detroit to reach that goal. And he probably wouldn’t retire if people kept offering him deals that he couldn’t refuse. And he shouldn’t. And our view of his career shouldn’t change as a result of it. What Cabrera COULD do as a 30-year-old is what is sending him to the Hall, not what he can’t do at 40.

As for the pleasure of watching him play, I don’t know. When the Simpsons were around season 7 or 8 I was a kid, and I remember hoping they’d stay on forever. You can blame my monkey’s paw wish for the last few decades, I suppose. Cabrera was not a lot of fun to watch play last year, because he wasn’t a diminished version of himself – he was nothing like himself. There was no hint of the player he used to be. He wasn’t declining, he fell off a cliff.

It’s really hard to imagine him being that bad over the course of another season, honestly. Where could he go from here? He’s already an unplayable player on a team of unplayable players, so I guess the Tiger’s strategy is “what the Hell?” I’m sure he sells some tickets, and he’s definitely going to sell some tickets as the season goes on now that we know this is it. But Pujols is the exception to the rule like he’s always been the exception to the rule. Whatever highlights Cabrera is able to muster beyond hat tips next year, he’s better remembered from the decade before. But I bet there’s something in there. It may not be Babe Ruth‘s 3HR last hurrah with the Braves – but on the very last pitch Cabrera saw last year, he laced through the middle for a 102 mph single. So there’s something still there. Baseball is fleeting. Life is fleeting. Squeeze every bit of magic from it you can. Don’t go out on anyone else’s terms but your own. Unless, of course, your terms involve ax murder.

3,000

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