For the 2022 Hall of Fame Tracker, with a lengthy analysis of each player’s case, click HERE.
For update 1 (and an explainer of how this works) click HERE
For update 2 click HERE
For update 3 click HERE
For update 4 click HERE
For update 5 click HERE
For update 6 click HERE
This is update 7/10. We will update approximately every 16 games.
Age
Player fWAR since last update // Season fWAR // Career fWAR
Age 20
Avg HOF Season: 0.8
Min Career: 0.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 0.8
Eury Perez 0.0 // 0.9 // 0.9 MILB
When Eury was sent down, the Marlins had the 2nd best record in the NL and were resting him for the stretch run. One month later, the Marlins had fallen to 8th, and now they need Eury to help them make a desperate playoff run.
Age 21
Avg HOF Season: 1.4
Min Career: 0.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 1.9
Ezequiel Tovar 0.0 // 1.2 // 1.1
Tovar hit .297 since the last update. No, sorry, that was his OBP. No, oops, wrong again, that was his SLG. Gulp. I mean he’s young and talented, so he’ll probably be fine overall, but he ain’t winning any awards this year.
Elly De La Cruz 0.5 // 1.3 // 1.3
Albert Pujols struck out 93 times in his rookie year in 690 plate appearances. It was his career high. Elly has struck out 83 times in 243 plate appearances. So he has some catching up to do.
Francisco Alvarez -0.1 // 2.2 // 2.2
21 homers on the season, and 21 walks. I love races like this!
Age 22
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8
Vaughn Grissom 0.0 // -0.4 // 0.3 AAA
Last 5 games in AAA – 9-17 with 5 walks and a homer. He’s an absolute hitting machine. On any other team, he’s starting in the majors. Just so happens he’s in the Braves organization, and they are basically an All-Star team unto their own. Awesome hitter? Nah. We don’t need him.
Zach Neto -0.4 // 0.9 // 0.9 DL
Well I don’t want him to be hurt, but I also want my victory lap as last update I pointed out something was still wrong, and now he’s back on the DL. This time for a lot longer, it looks like.
Taj Bradley 0.0 // 1.1 // 1.1 AAA
Optioned to the minors, as his FIP was going up along with his ERA
CJ Abrams 1.0 // 1.6 // 1.3 NEW TO LIST
One of the potential stars of the Soto deal, it’s nice for Washington that they now have a potential star SS – but doesn’t literally every team have a potential or current star at SS? Have you looked at the list? There have to be 15 on here, and that doesn’t include Dansby, or prospects.
Anthony Volpe 0.2 // 1.4 // 1.4
While everyone continues to wonder when Volpe’s .211 average is going to rise to respectability, remember last year he hit .236 in 99 AAA PAs and .251 in 497 AA PAs. In other words, the Yankees knew what they were getting.
Riley Greene 0.4 // 2.2 // 3.0
It’s always shocking to me to look at Greene’s metrics, because he’s one of the best hitters in the league. And I want to blame his rather pedestrian numbers on Detroit. But he’s hitting .344 at home!
Gunnar Henderson 0.3 // 2.6 // 3.4
I was going to talk about how the only thing that’s holding him back is his lack of contact, but I got scared Peter Angelos would suspend me.
Corbin Carroll 0.4 // 4.3 // 5.7
Forget statistics for a moment. Have you paid attention to this kid at all? Watch one game, one actual game, and see how many times you’re taken aback by how hard he’s playing the game every single play. He’s just awesome.
Michael Harris II 0.3 // 2.1 // 6.9
1.214 OPS so far in August, in case you were wondering if he’s really back.
Julio Rodriguez 1.0 // 3.6 // 9.0
.343 with 5 HR and 5 SB has him surging since last update. Baseball fans are so weird about sample sizes. You don’t put up that big of a rookie year without actually being good.
Wander Franco 0.6 // 4.3 // 9.0
His HOF chances may have taken a minor plunge.
Age 23
Avg HOF Season: 2.3
Min Career: 0.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 3.8
Roansy Contreras 0.0 // 0.0 // 1.1 MILB
Sort of going through a virtual minor league rehab at this point after not appearing in games over the last month.
Matt McLain 0.7 // 2.9// 2.9
Kind of what I expected when I saw his rate stats. Impressive player of course, but:
Home 9 HR .990 OPS
Road 3 HR .774 OPS
Years of bad teams have hidden what an extreme hitters park Cincinnati is.
Nolan Gorman 0.6 // 2.4 // 2.9
There’s been a narrative that Gorman has turned himself into an average defender, but it’s not true. He’s much improved, but still has negatives in all of his run value stats, and in UZR. The Brendan Donovan injury is his best shot to get the innings the rest of the way to demonstrate if he’s playable at 2B, which would be a huge value jump over DH.
Hunter Greene 0.0 // 1.7 // 3.3 DL
2 more rehab starts until he’s thrust in the middle of a pennant race. Hard not to be excited about what he might do down the stretch.
Geraldo Perdomo -0.2 // 2.6 // 3.3
9 sacrifices are leading the league for the 2nd year in a row, and more sacs than 14 entire teams.
Reid Detmers -0.1 // 1.9 // 4.0
The 2nd half has been rough, the Mariners just destroyed him, and the Astros in Houston are up tonight – but Detmers has impressed with his rate stats, and looks to be almost untouchable in an Anaheim potentially post-Ohtani.
Bobby Witt 1.2 // 3.9 // 6.2
Since July 23rd is hitting .379 with 10 xbh and 7 steals and it’s helped jump start the dreams of what everyone thought he might be.
Age 24
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 3.8
WAR HOF Career Pace: 9.6
Andres Munoz 0.3 // 0.9 // 3.1
Ohhhh watch out. With the Sewald trade, Munoz was made closer and has already been electric. Just as he’s likely to fall off this list – as is the eventual fate of every reliever, his actual HOF case is starting.
Jack Suwinski -0.1 // 2.1 // 3.9
3-38 with 19 strikeouts to start August. Jack! We were so excited to have you aboard the list, dude! Don’t quit on us now!
Isaac Paredes 0.4 // 3.2 // 5.2
He’s crushing his xwOBA, appears to be because he’s selling out for power, and pulling the ball more. He’s swinging more than ever (still low) but missing more than ever – so it’s not producing weak contact. He just goes from his heels and misses. And he used to pull the ball at insane rates in the minors. Detroit tried to stop that. TB has encouraged it. So now he’s hitting for power down the short LF line. Fascinating player to watch.
Dylan Carlson -0.4 // 0.5 // 5.4 DL
Hitting .145 since July 5th, and has since hit the DL. Must have partied hard on Independence Day.
Alejandro Kirk 0.9 // 1.6 // 6.2
Let’s do some average EVs for Kirk through the years:
2020: 95.0
2021: 92.3
2022: 90.5
2023: 87.0
Spencer Strider 0.4 // 3.7 // 8.5
Absolutely tragically, Strider struck out 6 Mets in 7 innings halting his 29 start streak of striking out more batters than innings pitched. I mean, it was 7 shutout innings and a win, but still: he disappointed me.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -0.1 // 0.2 // 9.3
Has 1 HR dating back to July 24th
Andres Gimenez 0.0 // 1.6 // 9.7
Don’t look now, but his 4-5 day with a homer over the Rays has his OPS back to league average. Oh, ye doubters.
Fernando Tatis Jr. -0.2 // 3.4 // 17.0
Hit his 100th career HR in Colorado – and frankly his Hall case seems a lot rosier now that other young superstar SSs have worse issues, right?
Juan Soto 1.0 // 4.3 // 27.1
Soto is Soto – his OPS+ is 155, and his career OPS+ is 157. But one must wonder is the high batting average days are a thing of the past? Probably dramatic, hitting .289 since April.
Age 25
Avg HOF Season: 4.5
Min Career: 6.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 13.1
Michael Soroka 0.0 // -0.3 // 4.6 AAA
He was never going to be great this year – but he’s been really good in AAA? 1 run over his last 12 innings, 3.38 ERA overall – wouldn’t even have expected that after his layoff. The future could actually still be bright.
Triston McKenzie, -0.1 // 0.3 // 5.6 DL
Well, he’s playing catch again! I would suspect his return will depend on the Ind – the Guardians success in their sort of playoff chase.
Alek Manoah, -0.1 // -0.2 // 5.6 AAA
Of all things about his complete disaster of a season – he had one balk in his first 300 career innings, and has 3 in 87 innings this year. It just kind of makes me tilt my head.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0.3 // 0.5 // 5.7
I’ll at least hand the Marlins this one – his defensive metrics in CF have progressed tremendously this year. He’s a positive OAA guy now (+3).
Trevor Rogers, 0.0 // 0.2 // 5.7 DL
It’s August 14th, and Rogers is still not able to throw. Considering the Marlins need for arms for the chance they could make the playoffs, I’m sure they are going to keep pushing for this season to happen. But…it’s not happening.
Emmanuel Clase, 0.3 // 1.4 // 6.4
Officially passed the 30 save mark for the 2nd consecutive year. And hey, he’s 25, so that’s a good thing. Still leading the league in saves, in spite of some bad luck.
Steven Kwan, 0.5 // 2.4 // 6.5
Back to back games with standup triples in Tampa, he’s just a guy who is fun to watch and root for.
Adley Rutschman, 0.3 // 2.7 // 8.0
Has 4 0-hit games in August, and 6 2-hit games. How many 1 hit-games? Just 2. Kinda weird.
Luis Robert Jr., 0.3 // 4.5 // 11.1
With the trade of Jake Burger, Robert’s 31 HR is more than the next to White Sox (Vaughn 15, Jimenez 14) combined.
Bo Bichette, 0.4 // 3.4 // 15.2 DL
Blue Jays picked up Paul DeJong to cover for Bichette’s injury. He’s 3-39. So the good news is, I don’t see a Wally Pipp thing happening here.
Ronald Acuna Jr., 1.1 // 6.2 // 24.6
1990 MVP Rickey Henderson: 28 HR, 65 SB, .439 OBP
2023 MVP-elect Ronald Acuna JR: 26 HR, 55 SB, .421 OBP
Age 26
Avg HOF Season: 5.0
Min Career: 9.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 17.1
Ke’Bryan Hayes -0.2 // 0.9 // 7.8 DL
HR by year: 5,6,7,8. Just wait until he’s 60.
Daulton Varsho 0.1 // 0.8 // 7.9
Announcers llllllllove opposite field hitting, it’s true. But if you want to point to Varsho’s struggles this year, he’s hitting to the opposite field 50% more. That means he’s hitting weaker balls, folks, and why he’s under-performing his xwOBA by 12 points.
Trent Grisham 0.7 // 1.6 // 8.8
Last 5 games: 1-17 with 10Ks. Trent’s a fine player, value-wise. But when you talk about boring baseball, they could use his at bats as a sleep aide.
Nico Hoerner 0.8 // 2.8 // 9.4
Batting .299 with 4 homers and an .857 OPS since the All-Star break, which has to make him the worst Cub in that stretch.
Luis Arraez 0.5 // 3.3 // 10.4
I love that he hit .354 in July and his batting average dropped. Hits are fun! Players who get hits are fun! Acting like errors are hits, doesn’t fool anyone! (message to Manfred)
Gleyber Torres 0.6 // 2.1 // 12.4
11 game hitting streak just ended, but hoo-boy. 1.141 OPS with 4 doubles and 2 homers.
Logan Webb 0.3 // 3.1 // 12.5
The secrets to leading the league in Innings Pitched (163) are health, and low walk rate (league leading 1.4 BB/9)
Austin Riley 0.7 // 3.0 // 13.4
125 career home runs now for Riley, don’t know if I’ve ever mentioned it, but I was there to watch his first career homer fly past me, right after telling my party that he was going to be a monster.
Julio Urias 0.2 // 0.7 // 13.7
Free Agent trackers take note, that Urias’s weird high HR rate has been gone since he returned from the DL. 3 HR in 8 starts in that time, with a 3.02 FIP. Spend the cash to get him.
Kyle Tucker 0.8 // 3.7 // 14.8
Don’t look now, but his OPS+ (145) besides being great, is only 2 points off his career high.
Yordan Alvarez 0.7 // 2.9 // 16.9
3-25 all singles in the past week, just got shut down completely
Ozzie Albies 0.3 // 2.6 // 17.8
Wish I could write a book on how weird Albies is. I think eventually teams are going to seek this out, instead of pushing against it, but who knows. He’s in the 35th percentile for exit velocity – and currently 2HR shy of his 2nd 30 HR season. Just yanks it down the right field line to the short porch, and then jogs around the bases.
Rafael Devers 0.9 // 2.2 // 20.3
On the other hand, Devers is a ball crushing machine playing in the absolute worst park for his swing. 26 HR this year, according to statcast if he played all of his games in Fenway he’d have 23 – lowest of any park. In Cincinnati he’d have 34.
Age 27
Avg HOF Season: 5.1
Min Career: 13.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 21.2
Willy Adames -0.5 // 1.1 // 14.8
You ever had the girlfriend who dumped you for a better guy, and then found out later, he wasn’t a better guy after all? Do you think Adames has started getting late night tests from the Rays?
Sandy Alcantara 0.5 // 2.4 // 15.6
Complete game over the Yankees, 1 run, 10Ks, gives him 3 CG on the year – after leading the league last year with 6. This may just be his category to dominate for the next half decade.
Cody Bellinger 1.1 // 3.8 // 21.0
Bellinger is hitting .387 since the All-Star break. That’s almost double his average the past few years. He proved to be too good for the Cubs to even trade – but…feel like he just may turn down that player option next year. Duh.
Age 28
Avg HOF Season: 4.9
Min Career: 17.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 25.1
Yoan Moncada, -0.3 // -0.1 // 13.5
OPS+ last year was 78. This year it’s fallen to 73. Next year he’s due to make over 24 million dollars. Good for him!
Tommy Edman, 0.1 // 1.5 // 14.6
Wife asked him to hit a homer on her birthday. He hit two. Sort of setting the bar high in the relationship category. What a jerk.
Walker Buehler, 0.0 // 0.0 // 15.1 DL
Dodger’s announced he’s coming back as a starter IF he comes back. But also, it’s August 14th. So I’ll just…keep…finding updates…
Corbin Burnes, 0.4 // 2.3 // 16.6
Burned hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t been himself. And he plays for Milwaukee. And he’s about to get expensive. I wonder how likely an off-season trade might be?
German Marquez, 0.0 // 0.2 // 17.5 DL
There ain’t gonna be any Marquez news the rest of the year. But I can tell you he did retweet the Mariners honoring King Felix a few days ago, so there is proof of life.
Shane Bieber, 0.0 // 1.6 // 20.4 DL
Has started a throwing program. Could be a major piece if he can make it back by the playoffs.
Shohei Ohtani, 1.0 // 7.8 // 30.7
Did you see the video of Shohei almost crying in the dugout after losing a game he had to be pulled out of early (4 shutout innings). I’ll give you a hint this off-season – the guy wants to win.
Carlos Correa, -0.4 // 0.6 // 31.9
Before this year, the concern was about Correa not being able to play. This year the problem has been when he HAS played.
Age 29
Avg HOF Season: 4.8
Min Career: 21.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 28.9
Byron Buxton, 0.0// 0.7 // 19.0
He’s back on the DL. Don’t know what else to tell you! At all times, he’s either hurt, or about to be hurt.
Matt Olson, 0.9 // 3.8 // 21.9
43 HR, 107 RBI. On pace for 60. Strictly from a HOF standpoint, obviously this is a major jump. If he hits 50 it’ll be one of those seasons you immediately remember when he retires.
Corey Seager, 1.5 // 4.1 // 30.3
Remember that his 31 doubles and 20 homers have been in 75 games since his injury. With his .348 average, this is like watching a peak Nomar season.
Alex Bregman, 0.5 // 2.2 // 33.3
The hope was last year’s surges meant that the MVP candidate version of Bregman was back – his current 113 OPS+ isn’t a bad number, but it is his career low, and he’s in his age 29 year.
Francisco Lindor 0.9 // 4.0 // 46.0
Always strange to me to hear what a supposed disappointment he’s been to the Mets. His 116 OPS+ this year is exactly 1 point below his career average. Lindor’s batting average might be low, but that’s not where his value comes from.
Avg HOF Season: 4.6
Min Career: 25.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 32.6
Trevor Story, 0.0 // 0.0 // 23.7
Forgive me as he wasn’t technically off the DL when I pulled his numbers, but HOLY CRAP TREVOR STORY WOKE UP! 7 hits and 4 doubles in 19 at bats since his return. Amazing what a little year-long rest can get you!
Javier Baez, 0.0 // 0.0 // 24.5
In his last 10 at bats he’s struck out 8 times. His OPS+ is 60. How much worse can his stay in Detroit possibly get?
Matt Chapman, 0.4 // 3.5 // 27.5
11 DRS is the most since he was an elite 3B back in 2019 (had 28 that year…won’t be catching that)
Aaron Nola, 0.0 // 2.3 // 32.2
His home run rate is the highest of his career, and his K/9 is the 2nd lowest. I think he’s been running on fumes all year, especially since the playoffs last year, but something for FA bidders to think about.
Trea Turner, -0.3 // 1.3 // 33.0
Last 10 games his OPS is 1.207, and his OPS on the season has gone up almost 50 full points. Perhaps the funk is over.
Xander Bogaerts, 0.3 // 2.7 // 36.9
I got nothing on Bogaerts. He’s have a slightly down, but very typical year. 500th career walk! There you go. He got his 500th career walk. You’re welcome.
Jose Ramirez, 0.5 // 4.0 // 45.2
Ramirez pretty clearly jumped his HOF chances the moment Tim Anderson hit the ground.
Bryce Harper, 0.4 // 1.2 // 45.4
If you’re still baffled at his power outage – his 27.8% fly ball % is by FAR the lowest of his career. The question is, will it rebound with health? Or was the surgery a career delineation point?
Manny Machado, 0.6 // 2.8 // 49.4
Sits 1 hit short of career #1,700, If he has a super hot final 6 weeks, could approach 1750.
Mookie Betts, 0.7 // 5.3 // 55.4
30 year old Mookie Betts and his 154 wRC+ is the 2nd highest of his career. Can we call him a legend yet?
Age 31
Avg HOF Season: 4.3
Min Career: 28.9
WAR HOF Career Pace: 36.1
Kris Bryant, 0.0 // -0.5 // 31.8 DL
Broken finger. Back on the DL. Says the Rockies don’t want him to move the finger at all. Kind of sounds like a ploy to make sure he doesn’t play again.
Aaron Judge, 0.0 // 2.8 // 39.0
Did you know Judge was originally drafted by Oakland? Wouldn’t that change some history? Maybe not this year, probably would have ended up signing with the Yankees anyway.
Christian Yelich, 0.3 // 4.0 // 40.7
His brief power renaissance appears to be over. 0 HR and 2 2B so far in August.
Mike Trout, 0.1 // 3.0 // 85.2 DL
Starting hitting off a machine again – have to get back to see the last time Trout and Shohei will be teammates.
Age 32
Avg HOF Season: 4.0
Min Career: 32.6
WAR HOF Career Pace: 39.2
J.T. Realmuto, 0.3 // 1.3 // 31.0
Nice August power surge – 3 HR in 8 games – has him sitting 1 short of 150 for his career.
Gerrit Cole, 0.7 // 3.3 // 42.0
10 wins on the year has him up to 140 for his career. By next year he might be at 150 – at age 33. The new 300!
Nolan Arenado, 0.4 // 2.7 // 48.4
3 double plays in the last 4 games has him leading the league with 17. First black ink as a Cardinal!
Age 33
Avg HOF Season: 3.4
Min Career: 36.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 42.0
Anthony Rendon, 0.0 // 0.2 // 34.3 DL
I spent way too long with someone who argued the Cardinals should trade Arenado for Rendon in part because Arenado was due to be hurt, and Rendon was not. I’ve wasted a good chunk of my life. In other news, Rendon is back on the DL and shut down from baseball activities for a few weeks.
Jason Heyward, 0.0 // 1.6 // 34.9
This year Heyward is homering ever 20.5 at bats, the best pace of his career. And he is doubling every 15 at bats…the best pace of his career. Crazy.
Anthony Rizzo, -0.1 // 0.9 // 35.9 DL
So Rizzo is a walking corpse on the field for months at a time, and then the Yankees are like – oops! Cracked skull.
Giancarlo Stanton, 0.2 // 0.0 // 42.7
Fly ball rate is a very low – but easily highest for him – 29.1%. He can still hit home runs. It’s basically all he can do. But as long as that Fly ball rate isn’t a mirage, he’s going to keep homering at high rates even as he ages.
Jose Altuve, 0.7 // 1.9 // 50.4
200th career HR – last year, at freaking age 32, tied his career high OPS+ at 160. This year, at 33 his OPS+ is…160.
Freddie Freeman, 1.5 // 5.7 // 56.1
Insane 43 doubles already means that he might be going for 60. The all-time record is 67. The all-time NL record is 64.
Age 34
Avg HOF Season: 3.0
Min Career: 39.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 44.3
Yasmani Grandal, -0.1 // 0.0 // 37.5
No truth to the rumor that he added Jose Ramirez to his will.
Chris Sale, 0.1 // 1.3 // 46.8
Well, he’s active again. And he tired, but realistically he was great. 7 strikeouts and 0 walks in 4.2 innings, only gave up one hit. Just so happens he hit a guy, and the 1 hit was a homer, so 2 earned runs.
Age 35
Avg HOF Season: 2.6
Min Career: 42.0
WAR HOF Career Pace: 46.4
Jacob deGrom, 0.0 // 1.5 // 42.6 DL
I just think it’s insanely awesome that deGrom left the Mets for the Rangers, and said it was because he wanted to win. Then a few months later, Scherzer is traded from the sucky Mets to join him on the good Rangers.
Paul Goldschmidt, 0.1 // 2.9 // 56.9
Got his 1,100th RBI. At this age, every little milestone counts.
Clayton Kershaw, 0.0 // 2.1 // 75.6 DL
He’s baaaaaaaaaaack. Also, beware of: His baaaaaaaaaaaack.
Age 36
Avg HOF Season: 2.0
Min Career: 44.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 48.1
Andrew McCutchen, 0.0 // 1.1 // 52.0
Didn’t homer in July, hasn’t homered in August, and still sits 3 below 300. Gotta be worried here.
Age 37
Avg HOF Season: 1.6
Min Career: 46.4
WAR HOF Career Pace: 49.3
Josh Donaldson, -0.1 // -0.1 // 46.1 DL
Hoping to return to action this season. Yankees fans hoping otherwise.
Evan Longoria, 0.0 // 0.6 // 55.1 DL
Has back stiffness that isn’t improving. Have to wonder if we’ve seen the last of him, too.
Age 38
Avg HOF Season: 1.1
Min Career: 48.1
WAR HOF Career Pace: 50.2
Max Scherzer, -0.1 // 1.1 // 71.4
Calling out the Mets front office for saying they didn’t plan on competing next year, has to be the highlight of news leaks for the year.
Age 39
Avg HOF Season: 0.9
Min Career: 49.3
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.0
Joey Votto, 0.5 // 0.5 // 58.4
The Reds are winning, and an up and coming team for the first time in forever. Votto is actually playing pretty well and has an OPS over .800. Could he decide this is fun and come back next year?
Zack Greinke, -0.2 // 0.4 // 65.9
He’s on the DL and is 1-12 on the year. I cannot believe it, but he’s not going to get the TWO wins he needed this year for 225. Thanks ROYALS.
Age 40
Avg HOF Season: 0.7
Min Career: 50.2
WAR HOF Career Pace: 51.5
Miguel Cabrera, 0.0 // -0.3 // 68.3
I just realized that Cabrera has only DHd this year, save for a few PH appearances. That’s 248 plate appearances from your DH – and 1 home run. Tell me that’s not an easy record.
Justin Verlander, 0.5 // 1.9 // 80.0
Last time I asked if Verlander would win 250 as a Met. The answer was YES!!!! And then he was dealt off to the Astros.