Bichette, Bo - MLB HOF Tracker

AGE 24 Tracked Career 3.8 WAR – 9.6 WAR

Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 3.2 WAR

Average Hall of Famer Year 3.9 WAR

Bichette, Bo

2022: 4.5 WAR Career: 11.8 WAR

Well, what a difference a month makes. I think it’s fair to say that Bo Bichette burst onto the scene as a crazy free-swinging 21-year-old who made great contact, had good power, and played SS – which meant even if he wasn’t putting up Ruthian numbers on offense, makes him very valuable. Thanks to injuries and 2020 madness he didn’t get his first chance to get a full season in until 2021, and he did not disappoint. He led the AL in hits with 191, and also knocked 29 homers, driving in 102, and batting .298. All very good traditional numbers to see on the back of a baseball card for a 23-year-old shortstop.

Want to know how many 23-year-old SSs have ever hit 29 homers in a season? 5. Want to know how many of those are in the Hall of Fame?

OK, none. Maybe it’s a bad example. It just shows how far away 23-year-olds are from establishing such an honor. And also how new it is to have power-hitting middle infielders in their early 20s. The list includes active players like Machado and Lindor. Retired players who spent a career ruining their reputation like Alex Rodriguez, and finally Nomar Garciaparra (no one gives him a chance, but come back in 75 years, and the vets committee has already elected this guy) and Hanley Ramirez, who I think people forget how incredible he was in his early years. He stands out on the list as the cautionary tale. I would highly suggest that Bo Bichette not gain 700 pounds and become some sort of out-of-place hippo on the field, because that really didn’t help Hanley age well.

Base running? He was superb. 25 out of 26 stolen bases? Get out of here.

And his defense was, well, it was mixed. I suppose you could call it acceptable. Most of his metrics were a little negative, except his DRS was +2. So he wasn’t the world’s best defender, but he would pass at SS. But a 5.1 WAR 23-year-old SS? That’s a star. And hopes were high for 2022.

If you decided not to pay attention and glanced at his stats at the end of 2022, you’d say, oh! not bad! 4.5 more WAR. Looks like we have a well-established baseline for what we can expect from Bo. He’s 24, he’s had a 4.5 WAR year, and a 5.1 WAR year. Pretty darn consistent. The guy is a stud.

Well yeah, he is. But that’s not at all how I’d describe his 2022. His 2022 kinda, sorta sucked – before he suddenly became Superman.

At least on offense. Baserunning he went from spectacular to below average in one year. 13 steals, 8 times caught, and a -2.7 BSR. His defense was as though he was throwing games. His RAA? -5. His OAA? -7 His UZR? -15.4. His DRS? -16. It’s like the Blue Jays were experimenting with Jim Abbott at SS.

Strangely, his basic stats were the same. Putouts, assists, and errors, are almost all spot-on year over year. Except he played 100 more innings, which makes a big difference. It was like he stood out there for 11 games and simply let every single ball go by. That would hurt the numbers, frankly, but it’s hard to see from the naked eye when watching him OR reading his stat sheet.

I don’t know if he was actually that bad at SS. It’s hard to imagine he was. But still, here’s the thing, Bichette played 159 games in 2021, and he played 159 games in 2022. And I’m telling you something was wrong with him this year. Physical, mental, I do not know, but something was wrong with Bo Bichette that held him back most of the year.

Offensively it was evident from the beginning of the season. Bichette hit just .213 with a .535 OPS in April. While he surged up with a nice May – the surge didn’t last. To start play on September 1st, Bo’s was at .260 with a .725 OPS.

And then the Calendar flipped to September. Dun dun dun…..

I hate that kind of crap, things don’t go at a calendar, and they didn’t really for Bo either. But September is what is eye-popping to look at.

Whatever was wrong with Bo disappeared a few weeks earlier, and he got right. We can see it in the hitting. We can see it in the running. And I would bet if you looked you’d see it in the defense too.

August 20th was the nadir for Bichette’s year-long malaise. There was barely a month left in the season, and he was at .255 – his freaking OBP was below .300 at .295 – His OPS was at .715, in real danger of dipping below .700. And on the season he was only 7 for 14 in steal attempts. If you looked at Bo Bichette on that date, you’d be convinced he was going to have a lost season.

Then his legs came back. He was 6 out of 7 in steals the rest of the year.

And the bat came back. Hoo boy did it come back. While September was hot, you can often identify how a batter is doing by their pitch recognition. In the 10 games remaining in August, Bo hit .316. Which is good. It’s not an amazing run over just 10 games, but it’s a pick-me-up. However, in those 10 games, he walked 5 times. Juxtapose that with his last 5 walks, which took 6 weeks to accomplish. His eye was back.

So what was this September? I don’t even know how to describe how hot he was. He had 54 hits in September. Joey Gallo had 56 hits all year. In his first 6 games of the month, he went 16-27 with 5 home runs (September 5th he played a doubleheader. 3 singles in the first game; 3 homers in the second). That’s a .593 average. That 6 game stretch alone will make your month.

But forget that hot streak. The REST of September – 26 games – he hit .359. Scorching. The dude was in the .250s 5 weeks before and ended up leading the league in hits AGAIN. (And for a Hall of Fame watch, a guy racking up this kind of hits this young may be coasting to 2,000-2,500) He finished the year batting .290. That’s an insane increase. His OPS went over .800. His OPS+ was 127, HIGHER than the year before. He finished 11th in MVP voting. One step up! It’s just insane how much September alone made a ho-hum season make Bo Bichette look like a legitimate Hall of Fame thread.

He’s got a lot working against him. He’ll never be an OBP guy. At some point soon he’s going to have to say goodbye to SS. But he’s 24, and he’s 22 hits from 500, and you have to love where his stats are at.

69 home runs, 127 wRC+, 11.8 fWAR compares favorably to:

39 home runs, 114 wRC+, 12.0 fWAR

Those were Derek Jeter‘s career totals at 24. What’s scary is that Jeter has a pretty big advantage on defense. Hey, he stuck at SS. I can’t imagine Bo can do that, but as long as he keeps hitting better than Jeter, well that seems to be a good thing for his hall chances I’d say.

50th career homer

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b0945249-8361-41cf-982f-23fcc691f040

100th career double, with a tootblan

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3863df22-6867-4a2f-a155-e64d38b0db11

His only triple…came in September. Of course.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=02f645b9-51a1-4400-a166-806a28d02dc2

September 5th 1st hit

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=fd417169-e68f-4234-b5a6-4505582d8833

September 5th 2nd hit

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e7d9e415-27b7-4bdd-881a-588ffa24c784

September 5th 3rd hit

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=51486bcd-bed7-4df0-b675-c856163b9836