AGE 25 Tracked Career 6.4 WAR – 13.2 WAR
Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 3.6 WAR
Average Hall of Famer Year 4.4 WAR
Hoerner, Nico
2022: 4.0 WAR Career: 6.4 WAR
Remember Addison Russell? The Cubs 2B/SS who helped the team with the World Series, but also decided to abuse his wife to some level of infamy. To make a long story short, the Cubs decided to keep Russell, and from a purely team performance standard, it was probably a good idea (from a selling your soul standard, probably a bad idea). He was bad, but the Cubs had a billion injuries and really didn’t have enough people to replace him, and ALSO the Cubs were in a close battle for nearly the entire season for the division title.
Then, because karma is a real force, Russell got hit in the helmet with a pitch and went onto the 7-day concussion DL (a move there was no need to make, it was already September, but it allowed the Cubs to not pay him $100,000 for being on the active roster). The Cubs called up a 22-year-old Nico Hoerner to replace him and play SS every day at a time when he was looked at as being way too green to make his MLB debut and start in the middle of a pennant drive. Desperate times, as they say. Nico had 3 hits and 4 RBI in his 1st game, and after 13 games he had hit 3 home runs, and suddenly Addison Russell was VERY expendable. He barely played when he came back from the DL, the Cubs dumped him in the off-season, and he’s currently in a heated competition with Kim Jung-un for who is the worst person in a country with “Korea” in the name.
So Nico Hoerner stepping up and playing a competent shortstop and hitting with surprising power is what finally was able to kill off Addison Russell’s career with the Cubs, and that is probably the biggest accolade for Nico to make the Hall of Fame.
It turns out, he probably wasn’t ready to be called up. He did indeed start in 2020 and was a disaster at the plate. Those 3 homers he hit in his 1st 13 games in 2019? He wouldn’t hit another one until 2022. In 2020 he hit 4 doubles. 4. In 48 games. And those were all of his extra-base hits.
In 2021 he didn’t make the team out of Spring Training.
And that brings me to the Nico Hoerner story: He has great defense. Great. Give him a glove on the field and he’s going to make you proud. And he’s a decent singles hitter. And he has less power than California during the brownouts. And it kills him.
Hoerner actually had a great 2021 except for all of the injuries. He only got into about 44 games, but not only were his overall numbers much, much better, he also showed a notable difference in the one thing the Cubs were hoping to fix about his swing:
He finally found a way to start hitting the ball in the air.
GB%
2019: 52.9%
2020: 55.3%
2021: 48.4%
2022: 46.1%
FB%
2019: 22.1%
2020: 23.5%
2021: 29.1%
2022: 33.2%
You can easily and clearly see the concerted effort to change the plane of his swing to occasionally elevate it. Now, I’m not a fan of this for every player. I’m personally a big fan of playing to the player’s individual strengths. Ozzie Smith famously had no power, and Whitey Herzog wanted to fine him every time he hit the ball in the air. But can I see why in 2022, and playing in Wrigley Field, and you have a player entering the prime of his body strength, why you might want him to muscle up and hit 5 or more doubles a year? Yes, I do.
And you can’t argue with the results. In 2021 he stepped up from 4 doubles to 10 doubles in about 40 more at-bats. In 2022 he played a full season. And, in perhaps a more impressive feat than Aaron Judge ever accomplished, Nico hit 10 home runs. DOUBLE FIGURES.
In 2020 his ISO has nearly doubled twice since 2020, going from 0.37 to 0.67 to .129. I’m not exactly expecting that to continue, but if it does he’ll be better than Babe Ruth come 2024. Which would be a plus.
Hoerner has developed himself with his ability to simply hit, as well. His relatively low K rate has allowed the BABIP gods to give him a solid average. In the case of 2021, he lucked himself into a .361 BABIP, to finish with a .302 average. In 2022 he was a more reasonable – like historically reasonable – .300 for BABIP, where he hit .281 on the year. That’s probably exactly where you can expect him to be.
You couple this with being one of the best defensive SSs in baseball, and that’s how you get a 4+ WAR player. Nico still gets hurt frequently – he had 2 different 12-game stretches he missed in 2022 – so prorated out and suddenly Nico is SUCH a good SS, that he’s a reasonable 5 WAR player in a full season. For a guy going into his age 26 season, that means with a little luck you could be looking at 20 WAR over the next 4 years.
You’d think any team and their mother would take that deal in a heartbeat.
And of course, the Cubs took Nico’s number one strength – his SS defense – and signed another SS to a long-term deal instead. Dansby Swanson will be the Cubs SS so long as he’s mobile, probably for longer than Nico will be in a Cubs uniform. Unless there’s an injury, one of the best SS defenders will hereby be banned from playing SS.
I don’t exactly blame them. 19 great SSs were available this year, and the Cubs have the room and the money. And the reality is that Nico Hoerner is a great value right now, but you can’t project him to be the leader of a winning team in the future.
Hoerner is going to be a great, rangy 2B at a time when that’s a huge value with the banning of the shift. Hoerner is a very good base-runner (another skill that broke out last year) who stole 20 bases in 22 attempts. Hoerner makes enough contact that he isn’t anything like the frustrating .185-hitting guys that we’ve come to expect in modern baseball. But while I said he has changed his swing to hit the ball in the air more – he’s not any more powerful.
His launch angle has jumped from 0.8 to over 10 in 2 years! But his exit velocity is still below average and hasn’t moved at all. He barrels the ball, like, never. More than he used to! but only 11 times all season. His hard-hit rate has actually dropped each year since 2020. If you are one of the pitchers that gave up a big hit to this guy, feel very ashamed.
His prognosis going forward is thus very limited. He’s never going to break out and have a Biggo, or Alomar-type season. And his defense isn’t transcendent enough to launch him to the Hall. There’s a reason he’s the guy that’s moving to 2nd. I don’t know that he’s necessarily worse than Swanson, but he certainly isn’t so much better than you’re going to ask your big FA signing to switch positions. Especially because Hoerner has documented success at 2nd already.
And it’s not like there’s a chance he could have an Alomar-type season. Because Alomar was a threat at the plate. And pitchers pitch threats at the plate far differently than they pitch to the Hoerners of the world. I mentioned Hoerner doesn’t strike out much. And it’s true! And it’s also because pitchers pump him strike after strike from lack of fear. When they throw him a ball, he chases it. Every time. 18th percentile in chase rate. 14th percentile in walks. If Hoerner were to suddenly become a threat in the zone, pitchers would start throwing it out of the zone. So Hoerner needs to muscle up, AND continue hitting the ball in the air more, AND gain a better batters eye all simultaneously. Sorry friends, if you’re planning on intending his induction, I hope you got insurance on those plane tickets.
Of course, I would have said the same thing about Ozzie at that age. But the Cardinals didn’t sign Cal Ripken to play SS over him. So, enjoy Nico. Seems like a good guy. He was the boot that got rid of Addison Russell. He’s shown a remarkable ability to develop and adjust which suggests he’s a hard worker that definitely deserves your respect. Players like him remind us that baseball can be for everyone. Work hard enough, and it doesn’t matter if you’re a weakling. You TOO can play baseball. Unless, of course, Dansby Swanson comes along. Then step aside, b!+ch.
Triples to left rock
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=62e75022-1265-4850-857d-381283dc4a3f
Powers up for a double 74.9 mph
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=24d0ee90-9d7e-454f-b817-6d2f6425b856
His only ball over 400 feet – 407
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=626ef311-43a0-4478-9ffc-4319385b7e2d
358 HR “The Neco”
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=258d80ee-4bd6-410a-bace-a9c27f51108d